Commuting in the future

Landing at Schiphol airport to attend a blockchain conference, I was pleasantly surprised to be greeted by a fleet of all electric (Tesla) taxis waiting silently to pick up passengers. Airport authorities in Amsterdam recently decreed that emissions from conventional engines were far too high and only electric taxis would be permitted to queue at the taxi stand.

This is not surprising since new restrictions will come into force shortly in Frankfurt when gas or diesel engine cars will not be permitted to enter the city. Such is the awareness of the health hazards of nitrogen oxides emitted from diesel engines that drivers in Germany will soon have to change their engines or buy new electric cars in order to comply. Needless to say, electric vehicles have an instrumental role in driving the transition to a low carbon economy and European cities look forward to a future dominated by them. This will certainly make it easier to live and breathe in the major cities, especially so in Malta where emissions are high.

The question is: can we afford to plan for an all-electric transition given the thousands of ageing oil burners roaming the streets. Having registered a 7.5 per cent of GDP increase in the third quarter of last year, this augurs well to afford the extra millions needed to plan how to cut emissions. The other cherry on the cake is the good news about government debt. This is on a firm downward trajectory thanks to economic growth, with GPD dropping to 48.1 per cent from a high of 73 per cent in 2012 due partly to private consumption. This is projected to remain the main driver of growth, while capital investment is to increase mainly on the back of the frenetic growth in construction. Net exports are expected to contribute only modestly to GDP growth, as domestic demand fuels more imports.

Apart from the worries about car emissions, there are other headaches caused by our race for economic growth. Employers face lack of trained staff, but on a positive note, last Christmas retailers were making hay due to improved consumer confidence and a growing disposable income. Black Friday last year, was the best ever for retailing. Even the latest Central Bank report is upbeat. The fly in the ointment is the rapid increase of private cars which as stated above is partly the result of affluence and the unpopularity of public transport. Close to 380,000 ageing vehicles (almost one for each resident, mostly imported second-hand) clog the narrow streets and make commuting a daily nightmare. Welcome to the streets in Istanbul.

The government is allocating €100 million to upgrade the roads but this is only a palliative. The solution to traffic congestion is not an easy one. Needless to say, car emissions are exacerbated by an increase in tourist arrivals (now planned to reach three million) which creates a bionetwork of a carcinogenesis cloud. Malta’s air quality is slowly becoming like Beijing’s. Efforts have been made to remove the registration tax on electric cars (not hybrid) but they are still expensive and the island has a limited number of charging bays. The concept of a robotaxi pool is still alien and Uber does not operate here. As stated earlier, car ownership is endemic. The good news is that we read about the future use of self-drive cars in Europe and the prediction that if this is successful in Malta, it will make car ownership less popular.

Imagine a future scene when robotaxis become mainstream and there will be a drastic drop in the number of cars on roads. Driverless cars are the future and firms like Tesla in Silicon Valley are investing heavily in such technology. There is no denying that conventional car manufacturers, like Mercedes, GM, Ford, Volkswagen, BMW and Toyota are keen to get on the gravy train. They aggressively invest in auto tech which they hope will enable them to be among the first to produce autonomous cars. By 2025, one anticipates that Europe will witness a number of fully tried and tested autonomous vehicles. The question is, are we ready to face this transformation. Will our town planners embrace the challenge of fewer cars on the roads and design new flyovers and super highways to meet the future demand for more enlightened commuters.

In the USA, a massive interest in autonomous vehicles has slowed the design of conventional vehicles running internal combustion engines. It is a race to the bottom. Europeans want to replicate Tesla’s adventure and develop its own technology and software that leads to the manufacture of safe and efficient electric cars. Tesla is experimenting with autonomously driven vehicles – all relying on multiple sensors and advanced computers to transport passengers from A to B in comfort. All this at one third of the cost of traditional car ownership. Many now see technology firms as being better placed than carmakers to develop and profit from the software that will underpin automated driving ( The Economist, 2016).

Is this the death knell for future car ownership in big cities? In the UK, Jaguar Land Rover announced its policy to invest more to enhance its expertise in autonomous and electric technology, mainly employing more electronic and software engineers. It goes without saying, that autos of a bygone age such as the legendary Ford ‘T’ cars, once a superlative feat of mechanics, have gracefully given way to electronic marvels on wheels. Armed with sensors like Mobileye, they now have the capability of parallel parking, seeing and heeding oncoming traffic, predicting merge time and gauging accurate speed. Readers may ask is this fantasyland or a true prediction of what could hit our roads in the medium term.

Transport technology based on AI will permit commuters to use cars temporarily charged to their smart phones and drop them off where they want. Car ownership will gradually become merely a status symbol for enthusiasts/collectors but the general public will reject cars and gradually get used to cheap rides on shared cars. It would be a joy not having the hassle of finding a place to park.

It seems like something out of a fantasy movie where autonomous cars will not need drivers, and could theoretically come to your door. In fact, some predict that Europeans will only buy autonomous, electrical powered cars by 2035 and in time, fossil-fuelled vehicles will be regarded as dinosaurs. This encouraging scenario, which promises clean air and blue skies, warms our hearts and makes us hope for a better island to live on.