VINCE MARMARA

Despite slight increase in cases, situation is stable and under control

While this week saw a slight increase in new COVID-19 cases when compared to the previous week, the situation seems to be stable and under control, statistician Vincent Marmara said in his weekly vlog with The Malta Independent on Sunday.

20 new cases were reported over the past week, which is an increase over the nine new cases reported last week, but things should be put into perspective, Marmara said.

“When you compare the total number of new cases against the total number of tests performed, one can see a slight increase of 0.3% over the previous week.”

But the increase in cases was the result of transmission within a cluster of people, he explained. This means that people passed on the virus to others in the same group, and the virus was restricted to one particular group.

“Once that cluster is being controlled, there is nothing to worry about. If they are not transmitting the virus to people outside the group, then the situation is being controlled and there is no cause for alarm.”

Marmara compared the situation in Malta to that in other European countries.

In Italy, the number of new infections has gone down. “When compared to their peak, the number of new cases has gone down significantly. There is a similar wave in Germany, where the rate of new infections has shot down.”

The situation in the UK is a bit different, he said, explaining that the rate of infections has been going down at a slower rate.

“In the case of Malta, the situation is completely different. We had a short peak, followed by a period of relatively few new cases registered. Then there was a slight increase before numbers went down again. The number of cases registered over the past weeks has remained low. So, when one puts things into perspective, once can see that the situation is stable.”

Marmara said the reproduction number is currently 0.45, which is similar to the previous week.

“Despite a slight increase in cases over the previous week, when considering the fact that the new infections were confined to one cluster, and that the r-factor remains below one, one can say that the situation is stable and under control.”