ELECTION OR NO ELECTION

Five reasons for election in 2020. Five reasons for election in 2022

Prime Minister Robert Abela has ruled out an early election. Or so he said minutes after announcing that Konrad Mizzi had been dismissed by the Labour Party parliamentary group. But politicians have a habit of trying to deflect attention or play games with their political opponents. It could be Abela was trying to mess with the Nationalist Party. Or it could be that he really intends to go through all the five years of Labour’s term. Here are some reasons why a 2020 election is possible, and other reasons why Labour could take us to 2022 5 reasons for 2020 election in

1 An election in 2020 finds the PN in total disarray. It’s not that Labour does not have its own issues. But it is clear that the Nationalist Party is in deeper trouble, particularly because of internal division. Adrian Delia was elected by the party members in 2017, but he has never been supported by a sizeable section of the party structures, including some of his own MPs. Several of them have made matters difficult for him, and they will probably continue to do so until they see him out. No survey is published without calls for his resignation, as his numbers show that he is not trusted by the electorate. What these MPs and other PN officials fail to see is that they are greatly contributing to the downfall of their party, headed as it is towards its third electoral defeat in a row, possibly worsening the negative records achieved in 2013 and 2017. The PN has undergone an internal re-organisation which it is calling a renewal, but there are serious doubts whether anything could change its fate. Labour knows it will have an easy ride into another five-year term.

2 Labour has already been through the exercise of an early election, and since it is in power, it has the advantage of keeping its cards close to its chest until the right moment arrives. It knows how to prepare for polls which come earlier than expected. In 2017, then PM Joseph Muscat set the election date one year ahead of its normal course. Whatever the reason for that decision, Labour was ready and its electoral machine was up and running from day one. It is a known fact that Labour’s internal structures are functioning better than those of the PN, which have gone through tremendous upheaval in the last three years and are still to settle down after the latest reform. Labour will also soon also have a deputy leader solely focussed on the party, and without the responsibility of a ministry or a personal ambition to be elected. This will put it in a stronger position than it already is.

3 Robert Abela will have the chance to come clean and get rid of the millstones that are heckling his government. He has already made some important decisions, such as not selecting people like Chris Cardona and Konrad Mizzi as ministers. The former resigned both from MP and the deputy leadership post, but Mizzi, in spite of being kicked out of the PL parliamentary group, hangs on. As does Joseph Muscat, whose resignation after his office was linked with the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia will remain a huge stain on Labour’s history. An election will mean that Labour will have the opportunity to wipe its slate clean, and for Abela to build his own team. Surveys show that he is a trusted more as a leader, and it must also be said that many of his young crop of ministers are performing well.

4 Malta has had a very difficult first half of the year because of the Coronavirus pandemic. It has affected our health system, our economy and our way of life. The government has reacted well to the situation, delving deep into its pockets to help an ailing economy survive the crisis. It is however possible that the worst effects are still to come. The government cannot continue to dish out financial assistance ad eternum. It is also likely that taxes will have to be introduced or increased for the government to recoup some of its expenditure. Abela has said that there is no intention to do so, but in one way or another, the government will have to take action to keep the country’s finances on track. Some of the assistance provided by the EU will have to be paid back. The prickly pear, remember? An election might be held before these unpopular measures are taken.

5 The notion that Malta could be placed on the grey list later this year or early the next because of its failures to address money laundering issues might not be an important consideration to the average voter. But the negative effects of such a listing could bring about serious problems for Malta, and not only in terms of reputation. The holding of an early election might be the last (desperate?) attempt to show that the Labour government means business and wants to do away with its recent past and start afresh. In its manifesto, Labour would pledge to be more forceful in its attempts to combat money laundering, and a large victory would then give it a strong mandate to implement its plans.

5 reasons for election in 2022

1 No average Labour voter wants an early election. They were against it when it happened in 2017 and will be against it now. For them, the early 2017 election meant one year fewer in power, and an election in 2020 would mean another two years fewer in power. That would mean that three of the potential 10 years in government would have been thrown away. Remember, the average Labour voter is thinking of the 25 years the Nationalist Party spent in power, and they want the PL to emulate, possibly surpass that feat. Those 25 years of PN were broken by a 22-month stint for Labour, but the Labour Party has drummed it up so much that the PN was in power for a quarter of a century – as if it prefers to forget those two tumultuous years it had in government – that the Labour voter “believes” it was one whole spell lasting 25 years.

2 Labour knows it will win the next election come what may. Whether it is held tomorrow, in three months or in two years, Labour is going to win. So there is really no rush for an election. An election two years from now will give Labour more time to prepare, for the new deputy leader for party affairs to settle down, and for Labour to continue to implement the five-year programme with which it won the 2017 election. It is said that Labour has fulfilled a majority of its electoral pledges, but it still needs to complete its programme. The more promises that are implemented, the more credible would Labour be in its pledges for the next term.

3 As things stand now, Abela is implementing a manifesto that is not his. He was part of it, endorsed it as a Labour candidate, but he is fulfilling someone else’s plan and, no doubt, would like to see it through as explained above. But he relishes the thought that he will be leading Labour into the next election with his own plan, which he then promises to carry out. An election manifesto is not something that is drawn up in a few days. It takes weeks, if not months, of preparation, meetings and discussions. With the Coronavirus pandemic, Abela has not had much time to think of anything else in his first six months as PM. And with Labour in the process of electing its new deputy leader – who will be dedicated exclusively to party affairs – this process has been sidelined for the time being. It will re-start once Labour will have the new deputy leader in place.

4 Robert Abela made many changes to his Cabinet of Ministers, when it is compared to the one that had been appointed by Joseph Muscat. Abela showed confidence in many of the younger MPs in his group, giving them important ministries in spite of their limited experience, considering that some of them were elected to Parliament for the first time in 2017. Others were given positions as parliamentary secretaries. A couple more years of experience in administration will serve them well for the time when Abela will make his choices once, as it is most likely, he will be re-elected to lead the country. Abela, who was also elected for the first time to Parliament in the last election, will use this time to settle down even more in his new role, learn from the mistakes he commits, and be able to gather more experience before he embarks on his first full term as PM.

5 Robert Abela would like to have an election on his own terms. He does not want to be pushed into an early election like his predecessor was. Joseph Muscat will be remembered for calling an election to escape the clutches of the Egrant inquiry, and all that came afterwards and all that we are getting to know these days. Robert Abela would like to complete the whole term and use the two years that remain as a launching pad for the next legislature. An early election, and especially one that could be forced by some scandal or revelation, would put him on an equal footing as Muscat, something that Abela would like to avoid.