The Malta Independent on Sunday
Malta’s COVID-19 reproduction factor stands at 1.56 – Vincent Marmara
Malta’s COVID-19 reproduction factor currently stands at 1.56, statistician Vincent Marmara told The Malta Independent on Sunday in his exclusive weekly video blog.
Assessing the past week, Marmara observed that there has been another increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 found in Malta, with a total of 374 cases being found compared to 281 during the previous week.
Marmara however noted that, as usual, one must take these numbers into context, especially with the number of tests carried out in the past week. Indeed, he said, there has been an increase in testing in the past week, with one particular day where over 3,000 tests were carried out.
Out of all the tests carried out in the past week, Marmara observed, 2.2% of them turned out to be positive. This is only a slight increase of 0.1% on the same statistic from the previous week, he said.
Malta in fact has the second highest rate of testing per 1 million population in Europe, with only Luxembourg having a higher rate.
Over the past week, Malta saw its 10th death related to COVID-19. However, the country still has one of the lowest death rates per 1 million population compared with the rest of Europe, with Latvia, Cyprus and Slovakia only having a lower rate.
“This is all important information; we are presenting the positives but not to detract from the negatives; the public has the right to hear the full picture,” Marmara said.
These are all important statistics to take into consideration when applying the necessary mathematical model to calculate the most scientifically accurate reproduction factor, he said.
The reproduction factor of the virus is one of the key figures which countries across the world have been trying to reduce ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began. The aim for countries has been to reduce the ratio to a level of 1 – which would mean that one person would transmit the virus to one other person.
Malta’s reproduction number had not exceeded 1 since last May, however with the current influx in cases it has consistently remained above 1.
Some outlets and a social media page in particular – which claims to provide exclusive information about the reproduction factor – had been reporting that the reproduction factor had exceeded 2, with the latter even reporting that it was close to 3.
However, Superintendent of Public Health Charmaine Gauci confirmed in her briefing last Friday that the reproduction number has not exceeded 2, leading to the aforementioned social media page to edit a previous post to reflect this.
Indeed, Marmara said that the current reproduction factor stands at 1.56.
Marmara explained that the reproduction factor is calculated based on an SEIR model wherein a particle filter algorithm is used to ascertain the most accurate reproduction value based on a variety of data including case numbers, clusters, test numbers, the importation rate, and the reporting rate of the virus.
It is a model which is one of the most reliable ones available, and is also used by other countries such as the United Kingdom in order to calculate their own reproduction factor.
Marmara said that with the reproduction factor above 1, the measures and decisions taken to control the pandemic are all important and it is similarly important for people to follow guidelines in particular related to masks and social distancing because all have a role in reducing the rate of transmission.