Could Pope’s visit push election to spring 2022?

• When next general election is most likely to be held

The election will be held within the next 12 months. That is a fact.

A general election must be held within five years and three months from the first time Parliament convenes at the start of a legislature, which means the latest the election can be held is September 2022. But, in all likelihood, Robert Abela will not wait until the very last minute to call an election. Prime Ministers rarely do that.

There have been growing rumours that Robert Abela will call the election for November, just after the government presents its budget for 2022.

But those plans could be ruined by Pope Francis’ planned visit to Malta later this year, possibly in November. It is highly unlikely that the two will coincide. Then again, the Pope’s visit is not yet confirmed, so this is all hypothetical.

There are mixed signs. Over the past months, there has been growing speculation that the election will be held later on this year. Some say that Abela will want to call an election while the going is good. Now that the latest political survey has shown that the gap between PL and PN has narrowed, Abela will want to hold an election before Labour loses more ground.

Then again, the numbers are still overwhelmingly in Labour’s favour, and the gap hasn’t narrowed enough to be of any serious concern for the PL.

That being said, the growing number of billboards sprouting up on the roadsides would paint a different picture. This newsroom is informed that many of these billboards are booked by business enterprises up until September, following which they will be taken over by the political parties.

Two plausible time windows

In reality, there are two specific time windows where an election is more likely to happen.

These are dictated by various factors, including the Pope’s visit, the Covid-19 pandemic and schools.

Elections in summer are a rarity in Malta. The last time that an election was held in summer was in 1998, when Labour was sent back to the Opposition benches after only 22 months in power – the Alfred Sant years.

That election was held in September, which meant that the election campaign took place under the scorching August sun. But the date for that election was dictated by the circumstances of the time. It was a crisis election that simply could not wait any longer. It was necessary to hold an election at that time because the Malta Labour Party was imploding, with former firebrand PM Dom Mintoff, then an MP, turning his guns against the party leader.

Full term?

Most elections are held close to the expiry of that particular legislature. But there are occasions when a snap election was deemed necessary by the incumbent Prime Minister.

Over the past three decades, only two elections were held well before their time. The first was in 1998. The second, in 2017, was when Joseph Muscat was forced to call an early election in the face of mounting scandals.

Eddie Fenech Adami twice did not wait until the five-year term expired, calling an election in 1992 and 1996 four months before.

On the other hand, Prime Ministers rarely wait until the very end of the legislature. The only time this was done in recent times was in 1987, when PM Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici held the election on the very last Saturday of the legislature.

A November election

Despite the possibility of a Papal visit, a November/early December election remains a likely choice. While it would shave more than a few months off the current legislature, the government would be riding high on the wave of a new taxless budget and polls that are overly in its favour. It would likely take place before more scandals emerge, before, for instance, the tax investigation into Rosianne Cutajar is concluded. The government could also take mileage from the recent prosecutions and arraignments related to Yorgen Fenech and Pilatus Bank.

Then again, we are still in the middle of a pandemic, with mass events currently banned. While some standing events will be allowed as from this month, it is highly unlikely that political mass meetings will be permitted as of November. Who knows? Maybe this will be a completely different kind of election that does away with large rallies. A pandemic election.

A Spring election

The other most plausible time window is spring of 2022. An election is not likely to happen during Easter, which next year falls on the second week of April. But it could happen before or after.

There might be logistical problems seeing that many of our state schools serve as polling stations, but that would also be a problem in November. And elections are held on Saturdays, anyway.

Holding an election in April/May of next year could be ideal for a number of factors. By then, Covid-19 restrictions could be eased further. The weather would be ideal. The polls will likely remain in Labour’s favour.

The national interest?

What is certain is that the current circumstances do not merit an early election. While the government remains under pressure to carry out reforms and ensure that criminals are prosecuted, we are nowhere near the situation of January 2019, when protests were a daily occurrence and a Prime Minister was forced to resign.

Speaking a few days ago, Prime Minister Robert Abela did not say whether an early election would be called. “If we were to act according to rumours, we would have had an election months ago. The reality and truth is that I am completely focused on the creation of the budget for next year, and I am determined for that budget to be announced and implemented.”

If his last statement were to be taken literally, it would most likely mean that Abela intends to serve out this legislature till the end.

But the PM also said that, “the date of the election will be revealed when the national interest dictates,” and we all know that election dates always accommodate the needs of the party in government, and not the national interest.