How to lose a majority

Nothing is assured in life, especially in politics or human management. With hindsight we might say that this or that result ‘could have been foreseen' but at that time or even before that time one could not be that sure

“How will the electorate of the first district react to the Merchants Street obscenity? Will it affect voting patterns, or at least make enough PL voters abstain to switch the district back to a PN majority?”

This is what gets many people down – they end up believing in polls or in sheer luck; they become fatalistic, lose the battle before it has even began, or, like many, just join the bandwagon and try to derive what opportunities they can get.

This is what may be happening to many right at this time. They base their basic belief just on newspaper headlines, without reading the fine print, without considering the relatively big amount of Don’t Knows, and without imagining that things can change.

A government majority is like a fish with scales, or a dinosaur, with each scale removable one by one until none remain.

But in fact, majorities can change: that is how we have come to this point, because the majority was overthrown in 2013. As I hope to prove today, this administration can be said to be doing its damnedest to lose its mammoth majority. This is the result, no doubt, of the air of superiority as a result of so many repeated electoral victories (two general elections plus many smaller ones). As Joseph Muscat used to brag, Invictus, until he was forced out.

I will speak first in territorial terms.

What will be the effect in vote terms in the second and third districts if the government remains pig-headed on the proposed yacht marina in Marsascala? There have been a lot of foul moves on this matter. So far, we do not know who is behind it. There has been no application. No public discussion of the application, as we have become used to. No detail on what will be the government’s role in all this.

It was because of roughly the same details, plus Mintoff’s unremitting opposition, that Alfred Sant lost his government. When the Nationalists came in, through discussion and not through imposition, the previous problems were solved and today the Cottonera Waterfront can be enjoyed by all and has added value to the whole area.

What details have emerged about the Marsascala yacht marina have angered the population, regardless of the party loyalty. Will the anger affect the turnout and the vote?

Now over to Valletta and the hideous unremovable platform that AX Holdings have put up in lower Merchants Street in front of their boutique hotel. True, upper in the same street smaller enclaves have been created in front of restaurants and are quite popular. But they are smaller and can easily be dismounted.

There is the fact how the relevant application has been processed and approved in record time (even though it seems that some of those who should have had a say, like the local council and the supervisor of cultural heritage, may have been neglectful of what the application implied).

This issue has also shed light that not only the Gasans and the Polidanos prefer profits to their duty to the country. This is not the first time the AX Group was in the news for negative reasons. They had trouble with the hotel itself. In the past they had huge problems when they were building the Palace and The Victoria hotels in a very sensitive area in Sliema though, truth be said, the two hotels are very well run and today are assets of Sliema. And I cannot resist adding the Verdala Hotel, left shut after the application for a golf course was rejected.

How will the electorate of the first district react to the Merchants Street obscenity? Will it affect voting patterns, or at least make enough PL voters abstain to switch the district back to a PN majority?

Then there are the cross-border issues.

So far the polls have shown what may just be the beginning of a swing on the corruption issue. Every day brings with it new elements, this week’s being the Pilatus Bank arraignments and Edward Scicluna being faced with statements he had made which now jar with his statement after the arraignment.

The government intends to boast of its handling of the economy and will be building up the coming Budget as a key factor of the election campaign.

Considering its voter base, it can expect to wow its supporters with some wage and pensions increases, hoping people will not notice the spike in the deficit (an EU record) and the continuing influx of third country nationals which keep wages down. Those of PL voters who do not have a job with the government can consider that the economy is not as good as it is made out to be, but don’t bet on this. They face ever bigger grocery bills, higher rents and the more unfortunate being forced to sleep in garages.

There is one reason why I do not believe a winning PL will not get the same mammoth majority this time. Last time a big chunk of the switchers were attracted by promises of jobs, promotions, etc but what can the government promise them this time? However, only consider that in 1987 there were still some 7,000 in search of a job that KMB came handy with employment at the Marsa Shipbuilding white elephant.

What may thwart these predictions is the still not functioning PN machine, with a leader that mumbles generalities, they keep appointing more people to the same role, and have taken to appoint raw recruits to sensitive positions that require experience and strong nerves. Their media is still run by the same people and shows the same faces. And the party still disregards people who may be its best assets. And like the preceding administration they are still unsure about their stand on Daphne Caruana Galizia.