The 17% who sway elections

“The 83% who have always voted for the same party, irrespective of what would have happened in the previous five years and the promises made for the next five, are an expression of loyalty.”

So now we have a strong indication of the number of people who decide which political party wins a general election.

We have always referred to them as the floating voters, the ones who are not linked to any side, the ones who decide what to do with their vote every five years.

In the recent State of the Nation conference that was organised by the Office of the President, a survey showed that 17% of the respondents said that they shift between parties depending on the moment.

The rest, 83%, have always voted for the same party.

Taking the last election to provide a clearer picture, 17% of the voters would amount to 52,813 of the 310,665 votes cast in 2017.

It is not a small number.

It is one of every six voters, a significant portion of our electorate.

These are the people who are choosing Malta’s government. The future of the country was always in their hands, and will be so when Malta gets to vote again.

And the number is set to rise, given that the same survey showed that the new voters are most likely to consider changing the party they voted for. A staggering 50 per cent of the respondents aged between 16 and 25 said there is a chance they will vote for a different party next time round.

Given the age cohort, more or less half of these have already tasted the meaning of voting in a general election in 2017. It is very much possible that they will not choose the same party when they vote again.

The loyalists

The 83% who have always voted for the same party, irrespective of what would have happened in the previous five years and the promises made for the next five, are an expression of loyalty.

It is not scientifically proven, but it has always been said that the Labour grassroots form a bigger group than the Nationalist counterpart.

This means that the PL, in any given election, has to persuade a much smaller segment of the remaining 17% to cross the finishing line first. Conversely, the PN has to convince a larger section of the floating voters.

History has told us that Labour Party election victories have been bigger, much bigger, than those obtained by the Nationalist Party. In the last two rounds, the PL won, both times, with a majority exceeding 35,000 votes, which is a massive result in a country with just over 300,000 voters.

In the coming election, this 83% of the electorate will be voting as they did in 2017. Maybe they will be shifting to a different candidate – and many will be “forced” to do so considering that a sizeable chunk of 2017 candidates will not be on the ballot sheet this time – but they will stick to their personal tradition and vote for the same party.

The floating voters

This leaves us with those 17% who will decide the outcome.

These are people who do not follow One News or Net News. Probably not even PBS, and some would also shun the independent media. They will not be the ones who will go to mass meetings when the campaign starts – if there will be any mass meetings this time, given the Covid-19 pandemic. You will not find them in party clubs or other public places to argue about politics. Even among friends, they stay away from discussing current affairs, and keep others guessing as to which side they are on.

But they have the utmost responsibility in the shaping of the country’s future. They are the ones who have the power to confirm a party in government or go in a new direction.

The survey showed that there is a stronger chance that people with a higher level of education shift between parties from one election to another. One fifth of this group of people who was interviewed for the purposes of the study said that they have voted for different parties in the past.

The younger generations are also more inclined to switch. They are more likely to not follow the family tradition. They are also more prone to open up to a new experience. The survey showed that half of the new voters would consider moving from one side to the other.

The changes

What will these 17% consider when they sit down in the polling booth and start putting in numbers in the boxes next to the list of candidates?

Every election is held in different circumstances. We have all heard the phrase about a week being a long time in politics. The quote is attributed to former UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson, in the 1960s. The world has changed so much since then and it is, figuratively speaking, spinning at a faster pace than half a century ago. Nowadays, a day, or even just a few hours, can be described as being “a long time in politics”.

There are five years, sometimes less, between one election and another in Malta. And so much has happened since we last cast our preferences. The most significant of them, of course, is the assassination of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. Whether this heinous crime, and all the shocking details that have emerged and continue to emerge from the law courts almost on a daily basis, will have an effect on the way these 17% will be voting is anyone’s guess.

The political effects of that murder were widespread. Joseph Muscat was forced to resign from the post of Prime Minister after his right hand man Keith Schembri was called in for questioning by the police. The Labour Party changed its leader and one of its two deputy leaders, Chris Cardona, in the wake of the developments.

The level of corruption, a subject very much close to Daphne’s heart, has not subsided. If anything, we are now learning much more of what happened these past eight years. Will these 17% give any thought to corruption before marking the ballot sheet?

The government

The Labour Party and government have skirted around corruption issues and say they have done their best to strengthen the institutions. Prime Minister Robert Abela constantly implies – but never directly says – that all of the corruption hullaballoo did not take place under his watch, conveniently forgetting that he was part of Muscat’s team too.

They have also taken full advantage of the Maltese mentality to keep the population happy in “panem et circenses” mode. A few cheques here and there, vouchers to spend and some other goodies have been cleverly distributed to divert attention away from pressing issues.

This has been labelled by many as a vote-catching exercise. And it must be admitted that there are people, probably among these 17% too, who are swayed one way or another when these tactics are employed.

The Labour Party and government will be using the economy carrot to persuade these 17% that the right choice would be to continue on the same road. The country’s economic results in the past years have been positive and, without such a performance, the government would not have been able to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic the way it did, from a financial point of view.

The opposition

These 17% of the voters will also look at the Opposition before making up their mind.

The Nationalist Party has had four years of internal turmoil, changing the leader twice since we last voted in 2017. While the PN is now trying to present itself as a united front, the cracks within the party and the personal differences that grew between individual exponents are still sending the wrong message.

That the PN’s line-up still includes a sizeable portion of MPs who have already been rejected by the electorate in 2013 and 2017, while at the same time being unable to attract fresh faces of high calibre, is a matter that will also be taken into consideration.

Over the past months the PN has come up with several ideas, most notably with regard to the health and energy sectors, that should be further analysed and pursued. It is understood that the party will be tackling other important sectors between now and the election as it present its vision for the country.

All this will be taken into account by the floating voters when decision-time arrives.

Other options

These 17% have other options, apart from the two major parties. One possibility is a vote to ADPD, made up of two small parties which joined forces since 2017. Over the years, however, Maltese voters have shown that they have little trust in the minor groups. AD has never passed 2% of the votes since its inception in the late 1980s, while PD got two candidates elected last time round only because it formed part of a coalition with the Nationalist Party. The way the two PD candidates behaved after getting elected will not convince many to vote for third parties.

Power

What is sure is that this onesixth of the electorate holds so much power. They hold the key to Castille. The future of the country, at least for the next five years, is in their hands.