Getting out of permacrisis
In 2022, the Collins Dictionary chose ‘permacrisis’ as its word of the year. Writer David Shariatmadari defined this as the “dizzying sense of lurching from one unprecedented event to another, as we wonder bleakly what new horrors might be around the corner.”
The events that unfolded since March 2020 seem to point in this direction: the COVID-19 pandemic was swiftly followed by the illegal Russian invasion of ukraine. Israel’s horrendous war in Gaza and the unfolding humanitarian situation have slightly eclipsed the precarious situation in ukraine. The stalemate in both wars seems to signify an entrenchment of this “permacrisis”.
There are worrying signs which indicate that the crises have the potential to take a turn for the worse.
The attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1 sparked Iran to launch more than 200 drones and missiles on Israel last Saturday. Israel and its allies say they intercepted 99 per cent of the them. An all out war between Israel and Iran is in nobody’s interest and could spark a global conflict. Thankfully, uS President Joe Biden made it clear from the outset that Washington would not support an Israeli retaliation against Iran.
On the other end of the spectrum, the ISIS attack in Moscow raised the spectre of terrorism. Intelligence reports seem to confirm that Russia was informed of such a possible attack by the uS.
If we look further into the past, the pre-COVID-19 world was not necessarily a bed of roses. The preceding decades were characterised by terrorist attacks and the threats of terror, a debilitating financial crisis which dashed the hopes of a generation, and the first signs that the international order we have come to know is set on a miry bog rather than solid foundations.
Given this, the term “permacrisis” can, perhaps, rightly sum up the past few decades. unfortunately, discerning a way out of this “permacrisis” is challenging. This is due primarily to two overarching factors – the first concerns an over-abundance of uncertainty, the second a lack of leadership.
In terms of uncertainty, the situation in the Near east can quickly escalate. This will have repercussions not only on the security level but also on the economic level.
For example, the seizure of MSC Aries at the Strait of Hormuz points to a potential source of instability since this is the sole sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Almost 25 per cent of global oil consumption and a third of liquefied natural gas passes through this strait.
China is the dark horse in the entire situation. While it undoubtedly has a role, it is hard to discern what this will be. China seems to be sitting on the fence, yet it is also in a position of strength and needs to use its global influence more in the interest of peace and stability.
Two possible solutions can help manage this permacrisis. On the one hand, many of the problems are caused by unilateralism. A measure of multilateralism is needed for states to understand that some issues are best tackled in a system that encourages reciprocity and dispute settlement through diplomacy. The lack of trust in such multilateral solutions is a worrying sign of things to come.
In other situations where a diplomatic solution may be complex, an open channel of dialogue must be kept open. In this regard, a mediating institution can be of immeasurable assistance.
In this scenario, the european union should carve out a role for itself. During the ongoing crises, the eu has often been a passive observer and a follower rather than a leader. europe must not hold back from creating a climate of open dialogue and discussion. This, to a certain extent, could help build its credibility both as a political unit and as an active participant in the region’s development.