An overview of 2020 general election
This year’s general elections has finally concluded and the General Election Commission (GEC) has released the preliminary results. The election saw 606 candidates from 17 parties and coalitions and independents, but the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) emerged victorious once again, filling 81 percent of or 62 seats in Parliament out of 76, just three shy of the previous 65.
As highlighted by MPP officials as election results were being finalized, this is a historic victory for the party which has not been able to secure dominance in consecutive elections. Even when the party formerly known as the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (not to be confused with the current Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party, which adopted the name after MPP changed its name) won landslide victory in 2000 by seizing 72 seats under the leadership of former President N.Enkhbayar, the party lost dominace in the following election in 2004 by tying with the Democratic Party (DP), seizing 36 seats each.
The success of MPP in this election can be largely attributed to the reputation of the chairman of the party and Prime Minister U.Khurelsukh, who was elected from Khentii Province, and the efficient leveraging of the new majoritarian system through their campaigns, urging voters to vote for the MPP team rather than individual candidates.
Nationwide, MPP received votes from around 30 percent of eligible voters, meaning they did not receive majority or over half of votes. The pluralistic manner of determining winners ensures that the party with the most votes wins the election, rather than necessitating a majority of votes to secure victory. In addition, having more parties running in the election served to disperse the votes that would otherwise have been given to the major rival party.
The landslide victory of MPP will undoubtedly consolidate U.Khurelsukh’s position, who was forced to compromise amid conflict within his own party. Now that MPP’s dominance is assured, the prime minister will no doubt set his sights on next year’s presidential election. As it stands currently, U.Khurelsukh is in the best position to foil President Kh.Battulga’s reelection. Should he be successful in gaining the presidency next year, MPP will have total power in how the country is run. This harkens back to Mongolia’s communist days when it was under a single party rule.
Despite MPP’s seemingly unified front, a good portion of their elected officials are from the “old crowd”, which fought against the current chairman during the party’s internal dispute. The skirmish ended in 2017 after former MPP Chairman M.Enkhbold conceded to the rising influence of U.Khurelsukh and his cohorts amid various political scandals to which he was linked to. The old crowd lost much during the strife and won’t happily accept servitude under U.Khurelsukh’s absolute dominion. Some observers believe that now with the election over, the old crowd will start making moves to consolidate their position. With MPP old timers Ts.Nyamdorj and D.Lundeejantsan, both of whom served in Parliament for 28 years, losing out in this year’s election, the old crowd has been dealt a big blow. Just how much influence they still have will be gauged when a new Cabinet is formed, with U.Khurelsukh likely keeping his office as prime minister. This too is a first for Mongolia, which never saw a prime minister keep his position after an election since democracy gained foothold some 30 years ago.
The fact that DP secured only 11 seats, and that two other minor parties and an independent candidate won three seats, implies that MPP will not have to worry about oppositions and can pass laws pretty much unilaterally. A strong opposition is vital for a healthy democracy, ensuring that one party or group doesn’t get their way, leaving out interests of the minority. But the poor performance of DP, with even the party’s Chairman S.Erdene failing to secure victory on his home turf in Bayangol District, suggests the disarray and lack of faith in the party by the public.
Former Prime Minister N.Altankhuyag securing victory as the sole independent candidate in Orkhon Province after leaving DP, while former independents and other party members that joined DP to run in the election lost, including O.Baasankhuu, S.Javkhlan, and G.Uyanga, is a slap in the face for DP. This shows that running without DP would have given these candidates a better shot in the election. Even former DP powerhouses such as former Speaker and President’s Chief of Staff Z.Enkhbold, Chairman of DP group in Parliament D.Erdenebat, and S.Bayartsogt, were not successful in this year’s election.
What is certain now is that DP is in a whirlwind right now, and needs complete overhaul if it is to ever regain its former glory. S.Erdene will be forced to step down as party chairman due to the party’s spectacular failure in this election, and what emerges from the chaos is anybody’s guess at this point.
This year’s election was conducted on the backdrop of the COVID19 pandemic, under special regime. Concerns about low turnout over COVID19 risks and even a proposal to postpone the elections was echoed by some political forces and even the president himself. But the fact that Mongolia does not have a single case of local transmission and border travel has been under strict supervision for months allowed the country to hold its general election in sound mind. COVID19 lockdowns and border closures also meant that some candidates had to campaign from abroad, which was first. All the more amazing is the fact that former lawmaker L.Gundalai nearly managed to win in spite of largely campaigning from Thailand due to COVID19 lockdown and returning to Mongolia three days before election day on an evacuation plane. He was not able to personally meet a single voter as he was quarantined upon arrival and relied solely on Facebook live stream and posts to conduct his campaign, yet managed to gain 18,609 votes, gaining fourth highest vote in Khuvgul Province.
The border closures also meant that this year’s election did not have any foreign observers, which has been a vital mechanism for ensuring fair competition. To make up for this, the GEC utilized more local observers, comprised of participating parties.
Despite COVID19 and heavy downpour that caused various travel obstacles, especially in rural areas, voter turnout reached 73.64 percent nationwide, which is in the same range as the 73.58 percent turnout of the last parliamentary election in 2016. Election turnout has been incrementally decreasing with each election, reaching as low as 67.3 percent in 2012, while the first democratic election in 1992 saw 95.6 percent turnout. Young voters in the capital were especially active this year, spurred on by various social media challenges and movements, according to local media.
Some other interesting tidbits about this year’s election are the fact that six candidates ran from within a jail cell, with one of them managing to get elected former Prime Minister J.Erdenebat who ran from Selenge Province. The candidates were jailed over various criminal and corruption allegations during election campaigning, which is unprecedented. Human rights advocates and some legal communities voiced concerns that courts are violating the law as candidates and lawmakers are afforded immunity from jailing unless they are caught at the scene of a crime with undisputable evidence. The fact that a jailed candidate was elected could also lead to some uncharted legal territory. As the president has to approve all elected candidates, if J.Erdenebat isn’t approved on the grounds that he is jailed over corruption allegations, another round of elections could be conducted to fill the seat. Although extremely unlikely at this point, this procedure becomes all the more complicated from a legal perspective with the new majoritarian system as even the two others elected with J.Erdenebat might have to run again.
Another interesting fact about this election is that for the first time ever, disabled and openly LGBT candidates ran in an election. Though they were not elected, the fact that they ran campaigns serves to further equality and inclusion in political processes in Mongolia.
The GEC said it is conducting handcounting to confirm the validity of votes at the moment and will report on the final election results in due course.