Rising second Covid-19 wave: What went wrong?
With a sharp rise in Covid- 19 cases, the claim that Namibia (and Africa in general) could emerge unscathed from Covid-19’s second wave is crumbling down.
The recent data indicates a second wave is with us. With that, unless immediate restrictive measures are implemented, we must brace for more hospitalisation and death than what the country experienced during the first wave in late July to mid-August this year.
But what went wrong? In this piece, we are taking a deep look at the ministry of health data reported so far – from when the pandemic landed on our shore today.
An analysis of the way the pandemic progressed in the country indicates that assuming the 14th of March as the first week of the pandemic, the number of cases started to increase in late July in week 9 and 10. The peak started towards the end of August in week 12, 13, 14 and 15, when the country reported 1 501, 1 679, 1 417 and 1 114 cases, respectively. The highest number, which stood at 316 cases, occurred on the 23 of August.
Correspondingly, the number of tests also increased from 5 576, in week 11 to 10 132 and 10 138 in week 14 and 15. This was the period when the Namibian government put in places stringent restrictive measures to flatten the curve, including control of movements in and out of the regions, closing of the borders and limiting of social gatherings.
These measures seemed to have paid off as it did not take long for the results to show. From mid-September (week16), the number of cases started to decrease. However, could the decrease perhaps be attributed to the lower number of tests conducted during the same period?
Considering that the weekly infection rate was still high at around 5%, the reduction of cases has given the false impression that we were spared from the second wave which had started to hit Europe and the Americas since the end of September. The result of this miscalculation saw the Namibian government ease tough lockdown measures which restored free movements in and out of the regions; increase the number of people allowed to attend a social gathering, and open up the economy that was badly battered by a prolonged lockdown.
The indications that the country was fast moving towards a new resurgence of Covid-19 cases were there for those who had eyes and the will to see. Since the 14 of November (week 25), almost a month ago, it was clear that we were headed towards exponential increase. On the 20th of November (end of week 25) 340 cases were recorded, with an infection rate of 5.5%. The cases increased to 495 in week 26, with an infection rate of 6.5%. On the 4th of December (end of week 27), the cases stood at 573 with an infection rate of 6.9%. By the end of week 28, the cases rose to 1,317 cases, with an infection rate of 11.4%.
The figures for week 29 already seemed gloomy. In only two days, the 12th and 13th of December, the confirmed cases have spike up than those of week 25 and almost equal to those of week 26. Clearly, here we can see that the infection rate is very similar to that experienced during the 1st wave.
The eased lockdown measures are some of the drivers of this new wave. But certainly, the concluded Regional and Local Authority election campaigns were superspreader events that fasttracked the pathogen’s movement throughout the country again.
In the absence of stringent Covid- 19 measures in the country, social distancing seems to be collapsing. However, the responsibility of the increase of cases does not simply lay on the public for not adhering to the “already” relaxed control measures. Signals of a second wave were there as numbers were rising in prisons and schools.
Fortunately for us, the mortality rate, in Namibia as in Africa, is much lower than what is experienced in the rest of the world. Thanks to a combination of factors, some of them yet to be fully understood by the scientists, ranging from the low population age, the sun exposure and the early restriction measures taken by the majorities of African countries, Namibia included, and for this, we have to thank the African governments’ fast responses.
However, the new wave is likely going to overwhelm our hospitals and the country’s capacity to respond. Therefore, it now is the time to act fast and promptly again and re-introduce measures such as restriction of intraregional movements, registration of clients’ names and contacts by shops and public offices, as well as a reduction in number for gatherings to prevent the fullblown of a 2nd wave, particularly when we are approaching the festive season.
At the same time, the health ministry should take all the necessary steps to ensure that the country can benefit from the Covid- 19 vaccine trial programme.