Escalating geopolitical and geoeconomics threats to food security
In current geopolitical and geoeconomics discourses, hunger is understood as a threat to be contained, resulting in an often-severe social and spatial localisation of food insecurity.
Indonesia will ban exports of cooking oil and its raw materials to reduce domestic shortages, and hold down skyrocketing prices, according to President Joko Widodo.
Indonesia issued a policy obligating all palm oil exporters to ensure adequate supplies are available in the domestic market and that costs do not follow sharply rising international prices.
The world could run out of food if countries are banning export. Rising geopolitical and geo-economics tensions are the most urgent risks the world faces in 2022, while worsening international relations are hindering a collective will to tackle these concerns.
The escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine is threatening the security of the global supply chain.
It is also increasingly likely that these attacks will escalate from mostly low-sophistication and temporarily disruptive to sophisticated and destructive as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy against Ukraine by Russia. War has a direct and indirect effect on food security, undermining it through various channels.
Furthermore, conflict deteriorates the environment for the utilisation of food.
The political and economic radiation of conflict beyond its geographic borders is an important indirect effect as well, which is manifested in the deterioration of regional investment climates and the crowding out of pro-growth policy priorities that would otherwise receive more attention.
The pressure on Namibia’s food supply will require substantial investment to guarantee food security, as Namibia relies on importing products.
Investments need to simultaneously increase smallscale farmers’ productivity and income; diversify farmers’ income through value chain development, and create more and better jobs for the rural poor.
Agriculture plays a critical role in transforming economies to reach the goal, along with achieving other essential development goals like ensuring food security and improving nutrition.
Therefore, to end hunger and undernutrition while accelerating economic growth, agricultural transformation must become a reality – from traditional techniques to modern technology, and from agriculture to industry and manufacturing – and then to a high-income service economy. For this process to be successful, the agricultural sector must be modernised.
Therefore, governments must prepare conditions including irrigation and improved market infrastructure for farmers to access these inputs and sell their agricultural produce.
Namibia will also need to build human capital to ensure a skilled labour force to master new technology, handle logistics and boost each node of the value chain. Comprehensive research into the causes of food insecurity, followed by significant investment in modern commercial farming techniques, is the only way to overcome food insecurity. Investment in agricultural inputs based on research is the only key that can successfully assist in the fight against food insecurity, hunger and poverty in Namibia.
There is much to be learned from the country’s commercial farmers when it comes to applying modern farming techniques and technology for food security purposes. Most emerging farmers still rely on traditional farming practices, which are unsustainable.
There is a need to improve agricultural production in the smallholder sector by facilitating improved farming – technology, research and the provision of necessary financial and material support to the communal farmers.
Rising geopolitical and geoeconomics tensions are the most urgent risk in 2022, and they expect a further economic confrontation between major powers in 2022/2023.
The world’s ability to foster collective action in the face of urgent major crises has reached crisis levels, with worsening international relations hindering action across a growing array of serious challenges.
Meanwhile, a darkening economic outlook, in part caused by geopolitical tensions, looks to further reduce the potential for international cooperation in 2022/2023.
With global trade and economic growth at risk in 2022, there is a more urgent need than ever to renew the architecture of international cooperation.
What countries need now is coordinated, concerted action to sustain growth and tackle the grave threats facing our world today.
We now live in a global village where the supply chain has become more globalised and fragmented.
Namibia needs to rely on technological standardisation to unite more partners across the global supply chain.
Most of the gains from agricultural trade liberalisation are associated with domestic reform rather than changes in trade policy. Improvements in agricultural trade can lead to faster and more sustainable growth, thereby reducing poverty along the way.
However, trade liberalisation canhavesomepotentiallynegative consequences when it comes to food security, typically related to the risk of price instability, resulting from variability in the markets, export bans, potential increase in private stocks and financial speculations.
Furthermore, it cannot be said whether price instability would increase in the context of open markets, as it would depend on the combined effect of these different forces. The challenge in the agricultural sector is how to realise gains from liberalisation through macroeconomic reforms that allow international prices to be more stable and transmitted to local farmers, thereby increasing their productivity.
Today, sanctions can be implemented in a more targeted way and can cause far greater damage than ever before. At the same time, there are stronger incentives for economic cooperation. Given the range of circumstances facing different countries, it is important for trade rules to incorporate sufficient flexibility to enable countries to utilise the policy tools that are available to them in ways that maximise the benefits of greater food self-sufficiency while minimising the risks associated with the restriction of trade and excessive reliance on trade.
To do so, we will structure our thoughts specifically.
Then, we are going to have a close look at the different frames present in the world according to the angle chosen and their different actions and outcomes.
We will try to sort out the opportunities of the situation and give, if the case is, some concrete solutions and strategies that might improve the present situation in Namibia.