• Nepal’s Failed Democracy *Myanmar Tense *Saudi Crown Prince in the Docks *Germany’s International Role * Trump’s Exit
Quo Vadis Nepal? Or the Himalayan Federal Democratic Republic?
The Himalayan Federal Democratic Republic (HFDR) finds itself in a very precarious state. The political actions are in the hands of the socalled leaders of the main political parties and the diplomats of the principal external actors – China, India and the United States.
That said and considering that the Supreme Court has laid down that the House of Representatives must again resume its activities by March 8, the initiative lies with acting-PM K.P. Sharma Oli, i.e. the ball is now in his court! If people expect him to take the Court’s decision lying down, they have not fully read his character. If he does nothing, he will probably be voted out.
The maverick politician with a load of personal ego has not reached the pinnacle of power without his share of wheeling and dealing. He is, after all, genuinely repulsed by his former Communist comrades and now deadly political opponents – Pushpa Kamal Dahal [aka ‘Prachande’], Madhav Kumar Nepal [aka ‘Makune’], and to a lesser extent Jhalanath Khanal [aka ‘Jhallu Bhai’].
Oli has successfully played the Nepali nationalist-cum-patriotic and ‘China’-card in the past and he could use his still extensive executive powers. His main move would be to join forces with Sher Bahadur Deuba, the chairman of the Nepali Congress and form a coalition government. He would even be willing to cede the primeminister’s chair. The official name of his political party would be secondary at this juncture.
If this primary move does not reach fruition, Oli has another one up his sleeve. He could cite a grave threat to national security – which is undoubtedly present – and declare a state of emergency. It would be quite possible that he has the support of one or more external actors. Domestically, the police and armed police would do his bidding, but it is difficult to speculate what the reaction of the army would be. The recent meeting of the Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) with the Chief Justice, which came about at the former’s request, could be seen in this light. The Army could very well demand major concessions as the price for its tolerance/neutrality. It could, in fact, play a major role in the unfolding of events. There is no need to doubt the Army’s basic creed of upholding the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity – the country’s only functioning institution capable of doing so. This underscores the popular adage: ‘every cloud has a silver lining’. Oli would, of course, promise a general election in due course.
Myanmar: Pressure Mounts on Military Dictatorship
Myanmar’s political crisis – the basic question of political legitimacy – took a dramatic turn at a special session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Saturday when the country’s UN ambassador, Kyaw Moe Tun declared his loyalty to the illegally ousted civilian government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (AP/Associated Press, Feb. 28).
In what can be termed as a major slap to the junta, Myanmar’s UN ambassador called on the world to pressure the military to cede power to the legitimate government.
Tun declared in an emotional speech to fellow delegates that he in fact represented Suu Kyi’s ‘civilian government elected by the people’ and supported the fight against military rule. He urged all countries to issue public statements strongly condemning the coup, and to refuse to recognize the military regime. He also called for stronger international measures to stop violence by security forces. In total defiance of the junta, the ambassador flashed the threefinger salute that has been adopted by the civil disobedience movement at the end of his speech in which he addressed people back home in Burmese.
On the protest front, the police have escalated their crackdown on demonstrators, deploying early and in force as protesters sought to assemble across the country. Security forces in some areas appeared to become more aggressive in using force and making arrests, utilizing more plainclothes officers than had previously revealed themselves. Residents of at least two cities, Yangon and Monywa, resisted erecting barricades to try to hinder the advance of the police. Many other cities and towns have also hosted large protests against the February 1 coup.
Mandalay has been the scene of several violent confrontations, and at least four of eight confirmed deaths linked to the protests. On Saturday, at least three people there were injured.
On Sunday, the junta further escalated armed violence against peaceful protesters. The Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) reported that there had been 19 confirmed deaths in nine cities with another 10 deaths unconfirmed. The independent media company broadcasts on satellite and digital terrestrial television, as well as online. DVB counted five deaths in Yangon and two in Mandalay, the largest and second-largest cities (AP/Associated Press, Feb. 28).
It is now high noon for the international community to act decisively. Sanctions alone are not enough. First, there must be an immediate meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) to take the military junta to the task. Second, intense pressure must be applied to the permanent members Russia and China NOT to impede actions directed against the military dictators, but to positively support them. Third, the neighbouring countries of the Association of South-East Asian (ASEAN) must undertake a more pro-active role, not only in the short-term resolution of the volatile situation, but also middleterm in convincing the Burmese generals that there is no alternative to the restoration of the democratic process and good governance. They have a stark choice: either to bow out gracefully now, or later face an international tribunal for crimes against humanity.
No Justice for Murdered Saudi Journalist
The putative wife of the murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has now come forward with new revelations. An Egyptian citizen, Hanan El Atr claims to have married Khashoggi in a religious ceremony in Washington D.C. in June 2018, a few months before he was brutally killed. The marriage was not officially registered and Khashoggi appears to have kept the relationship secret from his then Turkish fiancée HaticeCengiz DW/ Deutsche Welle: Ben Knight).
The CIA recently released a report claiming that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (aka: ‘MBS’) personally ordered Khashoggi's death in October 2018. He was murdered in the Saudi consulate-general in Istanbul, Turkey, allegedly by a special commando unit sent from Riyadh. The Saudi government has denied its involvement in the killing, while five people have been sentenced to prison in a Saudi court for the murder – but acting ‘independently.’
El Atr said she was “devastated” about the revelations in the CIAreport, saying her husband was not dangerous enough that he needed to be trapped and murdered. She knew the truth about Jamal and was ready to make public the actual circumstances.
There is now a lively debate in the States about President Joe Biden’s campaign promise to hold ‘MBS’ accountable. According to one of The New York Times star columnists, Nicholas Kristof, the Biden administration sees USSaudi relations through the lens of realpolitik and is appearing “to let the murderer walk” (NYT, March 1).
The White House has opted against imposing direct sanctions on the crown prince. The Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said definitively at a news conference last Friday: “The relationship with Saudi Arabia is bigger than any one individual” (The Washington Post, March 1).
According to CNN, “Khashoggi’s brutal murder exposes the uncomfortable truth that the US relationship with a Saudi royal family that uses oppression and funded extreme forms of Islam to stay in power has always been something of a corrupt bargain – one that reveals tensions between America’s founding values and the country it actually is (Stephen Collinson & Caitlin Hu, March 1).
Germany’s Role in the World: Citizens’ View
In a novel experiment, a group of more than 150 ‘ordinary people’ spent two months drawing up their recommendations for Germany’s foreign policy for the country’s politicians.
In the light of Germany’s weight in the European Union (EU), the Trans-Atlantic Partnership and the Group of Seven (G – 7), as well as the growing expectations placed on Germany around the globe, the parliamentary parties in the Bundestag (lower house of the German parliament) wanted to ascertain what ordinary citizens thought about their country’s role in world affairs (DW/Deutsche Welle: Wolfgang Dick, Feb. 27). Citizens were invited to apply to take part in online deliberations. Altogether 154 participants were selected according to age, gender, education, ethnic background and place of residence. The result, according to the organization Mehr Demokratie (‘More Democracy’), which set up the discussions, was a council that reflected the population mix of Germany to a large extent.
The citizens’ council concluded that Germany should be more outspoken and assertive about defending its values in the outside world, with the majority believing that Germany should speak out louder and clearer about human rights abuses and breaches of the rule of law.
All in all, a very praiseworthy experiment and worthy of emulation. For instance in our own country Nepal.
Trump’s Swan Song(s)
Donald J. Trump, the fluke 45th President of the United States, is now entering the final stages of his egregious political career. America has not experienced such a crook before, nor will it probably elect another who has broken all norms of decency. The rational world is now breathing a collective sigh of relief.
Whether he and his followers like it or not, he is now like an ageing bull elephant shunted off from the herd. At 74, he is already senile and advancing rapidly.
After his appearance and rambling speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Florida it is more than clear that he has no rational arguments. Still, he has a solid base which hangs on to his every [stupid] word [in Hillary Clinton’s famous bon mot: ‘bag of deplorables’], and Republican honchos who support him, if only for their own selfish ambitions and careers.
He dangled the prospect of running again for president in 2024, but this would be more than reaching for the moon. Trump suffers from a very advanced stage of delusions of grandeur, but as Lincoln famously said, he cannot fool all of the Americans, all of the time!