US-Pakistan relations at a crossroads

Despite many turbulences, Pakistan, the land of great wisdom, arts, and cultures, ups and downs, and diversity, has not waged a war outward in modern history. However, it was occupied by invaders until the middle of the twentieth century. Even after the region gained independence, world powers are trying to engage her for hegemonic interests.

Since its establishment as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, other than losing East Pakistan in 1971 as a new country, Bangladesh, with which it has developed good relations, and territorial disputes with India and Afghanistan, the country has had no major conflicts with a foreign country. Pakistan has settled its border with Iran and has strategic relations with China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the US. Pakistan enjoys a good international image as the second-largest member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, a member of the NonAligned Movement, and a member of the nine states that possess nuclear weapons.

Pakistan is situated at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, making it a key player in regional geopolitics. It shares borders with India, China, Afghanistan, and Iran. Pakistan is a potential energy transit hub, serving as a gateway for energy corridors between resource-rich countries in the Middle East and energy-deficient regions such as South Asia.

Projects like the IranPakistan Gas Pipeline, the TurkmenistanAfghanistan-PakistanIndia Pipeline, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), highlight Pakistan’s role in energy transit. As a frontline state in the fight against terrorism and extremism, Pakistan's stability is crucial for the security of the region. Its efforts to combat terrorism, particularly in the border regions with Afghanistan, have implications for regional stability and security. Although Pakistan is not a strong economy, global powers seek its support on many international and regional issues. Pakistan's strategic position before the rise of China, and especially during the Cold War was characterised by its alignment with the United States, rivalry with India, and involvement in regional conflicts. The US saw Pakistan as a bulwark against the spread of communism in South Asia and as a strategic partner in the region. This alliance led to significant military and economic assistance to Pakistan, including arms sales, military aid, and economic assistance. Pakistan's strategic position became even more pronounced during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Pakistan, along with the United States and other Western allies, supported the Afghan Mujahideen resistance against the Soviet forces. Pakistan served as a crucial staging ground and logistical base for the mujahideen, with extensive support from the CIA and other intelligence agencies. Pakistan's rivalry with India, its larger neighbour, also shaped its strategic position during the Cold War. The two countries were engaged in several conflicts, including the IndoPakistani Wars of 1947, 1965, and 1971. Pakistan successfully sought support from the United States and other allies to balance India's military strength and regional influence. Meanwhile, amid the 1962 Indo-China War and continuing border disputes, China found Pakistan an ally to contain India. Keen observer, China also saw the US partnership with the Islamic State shaky over their perceptions of the Taliban, the Mujaheddin, the al-Qaida Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, ISIS, and other radical Islamic forces. China, which in principle opposes all kinds of terrorism, is focused on developing strategic partnerships, with the ultimate goal of replacing the US as the most important friend of Pakistan. The efforts seem to be paying off, as reflected by mutual support on various diplomatic, military, and economic fronts, the active participation of Pakistan in China-led BRI, the formation of CPEC, ongoing bilateral cooperation in Gwadar Port, and Pakistan’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Pakistan's political landscape has experienced periods of turbulence and uncertainty, especially under the strong and ambitious army, but it has also demonstrated resilience and a capacity for democratic governance. Throughout most of its history, the top political leaders either are on good terms with the army or end up behind bars or are expelled from the country. The stability of Pakistan's politics is often a subject of debate and can be influenced by domestic and external factors.

The latest picture of Pakistan becomes comprehensive with the case of Imran Khan, a popular cricketerturned-politician. As the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) which emerged as the single largest party in the 2018 National Assembly, Khan formed a coalition government. Like his predecessors, Khan had a hard time balancing relations with major powers. When Russians attacked Ukraine in 2022 February, an event with deeper roots and farreaching consequences than can be perceived, Khan happened to be in Russia as the Pakistani head to visit Moscow since 1999. Moreover, against American interests, like neighbouring India and China, Pakistan under Khan stayed neutral on the Ukraine issue.

Two months later in April, Prime Minister Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote. Rumours are his ouster was followed by a 'bullets for bailout’ deal, in which Pakistan secretly supplied arms to Ukraine, ensuring an IMF bailout for Pakistan at the US' behest, a claim the new Pakistani authorities have denied. Whatever the truth, Khan seems convinced that Americans played against him. Writing for Time on 29 May 2022, Pakistani journalist Hasan Ali quotes Khan “Our people will not accept under any circumstances an imported government foisted upon us by an American conspiracy.” This is not the first time Pakistani leaders have been unhappy with the US. More than once, Pakistan has strongly criticised the US for drone strikes in Pakistani territory as part of counterterrorism efforts, raised concerns about policies and actions favouring India, criticised American support for India's nuclear programme and reluctance to engage in arms control agreements with Pakistan, thus playing a detrimental role to its national interests. Pakistanis feel the US is suspicious of sincere Pakistani efforts against terrorism, jeopardising anti-terrorism efforts and fuelling anti-American sentiments.

That the US is losing its status as the only superpower, a multipolar world order is in the making, it possesses nuclear arms, and its “allweather” friend China has become a world leader, Pakistan does not find itself vulnerable to yield to American pressures. To sum up, the US-Pak relations are at a crossroads. As the polarization between the US-led block and RussiaChina-led block deepens, US-Pak relations may improve or deteriorate, but it is unlikely to remain the status-quo.