US Govt issues climate warning
Stark assessment details geopolitical dangers of rapidly warming planet
The Earth’s warming and resulting natural disasters are creating a more dangerous world of desperate leaders and peoples, the Biden administration said yesterday in the federal government’s starkest assessments yet of security and migration challenges facing the United States as the climate worsens.
The Defence Department for years has called climate change a threat to US national security. But yesterday’s reports by the departments of Defence and Homeland Security, National Security Council and Director of National Intelligence provide one of the government’s deepest looks yet at the vast rippling effects on the world’s stability and resulting heightened threats to US security, as well as its impact on migration.
They include the first assessment by intelligence agencies on the impact of climate change, identifying 11 countries of greatest concern from Haiti to Afghanistan.
Another report, the first by the government focusing at length on climate and migration, recommends a number of steps, including monitoring the flows of people forced to leave their homes because of natural disasters, and working with Congress on a groundbreaking plan that would add droughts, floods and wildfires and other climate-related reasons to be considered in granting refugee status.
The climate migration assessments urge the creation of a task force to co-ordinate US management of climate change and migration across government, from climate scientists to aid and security officials.
Each year, storms, the failure of seasonal rains and other sudden natural disasters force an average of 21.5 million people from their homes around the world, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees says. Worsening climate from the burning of coal and gas already is intensifying a range of disasters, from wildfires overrunning towns in California, rising seas overtaking island nations and drought-aggravated conflict in some parts of the world.
“Policy and programming efforts made today and in coming years will impact estimates of people moving due to climate-related factors,” said the report, one of dozens of climate change assessments President Joe Biden ordered from federal agencies. “Tens of millions of people, however, are likely to be displaced over the next two to three decades due in large measure to climate change impacts.”
The Biden administration is eager to show itself confronting the impacts of climate change ahead of a crucial UN climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, that starts late this month. That’s especially so as Biden struggles to get lawmakers to agree to multibillion-dollar measures to slow climate change, a key part of his domestic agenda.
As part of its push yesterday, the administration released the first-ever national intelligence estimate on climate change, a document intended to signal the importance placed on the issue. National intelligence estimates are benchmark documents created by US intelligence agencies that are intended to inform decisionmaking and analysis across the government.
Notably, US intelligence agencies concluded it was probably already too late to keep the warming of the planet at or below the level laid out in the 2015 UN Paris climate accord. While that level remains the official goal for the United States and United Nations, many scientists have concluded the Earth’s temperature will rise at least several more tenths of a degree, a level of warming that brings even more damage and threatens some nations’ existence.
No nation offers asylum or other legal protections to people displaced specifically because of climate change. The United States has the opportunity to change that, which could prompt others to follow suit, refugee advocates said.
The administration said it is not seeking to change international agreements on refugees but rather create US laws that would allow climate change effects to be part of a valid claim for refugee status.
It noted that activists persecuted for speaking out against government inaction on climate change may also have plausible claims to refugee status. According to the separate intelligence assessment, a warming planet could increase geopolitical tensions particularly as poorer countries grapple with droughts, rising seas and other effects, while they wait for richer, higher-polluting countries to change their behaviour. Climate change will “increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security interests”, according to the estimate.
The estimate identifies 11 countries of particular concern: Afghanistan, Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Iraq, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea and Pakistan. It also lists two regions of concern: Central Africa and small island states in the Pacific Ocean.
Strains on land and water could push countries further toward conflict. In South Asia, much of Pakistan relies on surface water from rivers originating in India. The two countries are nuclear-armed rivals that have fought several wars since their founding in 1947. On India’s other side, about 10 per cent of Bangladesh’s 160 million people already live in coastal areas vulnerable to rising seas and saltwater intrusion.
Intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity under agency rules said climate change could indirectly affect counterterrorism by pushing people seeking food and shelter to violent groups.
The intelligence community needs more scientific expertise and to integrate climate change into its analysis of other countries, the officials said.
Rising temperatures could force almost 3 per cent of the populations of Latin America, South Asia and subsaharan Africa — more than 143 million people — to move within their countries in the next 30 years, according to one forecast cited in the report.
AP
Tens of millions of people, however, are likely to be displaced over the next two to three decades due in large measure to climate change impacts. US Government report