Debt: Ball and chain or getting on a roll?
History makes many cautious, but there’s positives to borrowing too
When it comes to our attitude towards debt in New Zealand, there are two schools of thought. We have the younger people, who are quite comfortable borrowing a lot, and the slightly older generation, who are much more conservative.
Both groups have been shaped by their experiences.
During the 1970s and 1980s, the New Zealand inflation rate averaged 11.4 per cent. This was extremely high, and it ensured a sharp rise in interest rates as a result.
The floating mortgage rate was about 6-7 per cent in the early 1970s, but it moved progressively higher and peaked at more than 20 per cent in 1987. On average, mortgage rates were 13 per cent during those two decades.
Having faced a consistent and steady increase over that period, which culminated in such a high cost of borrowing, it’s no surprise many New Zealanders are adverse to high debt levels and being beholden to the bank.
Then came the low inflation era, which brought lower borrowing costs with it.
There were several structural drivers of this trend: technological advances, globalisation, the emergence of China as a low-cost producer, and the advent of inflation targeting by the world’s central banks (which our own Reserve Bank pioneered).
Since 1990, New Zealand inflation has averaged 2.2 per cent.
The floating mortgage rate was 14.8 per cent at the beginning of 1990, and fell to 4.4 per cent this time last year, the lowest we’ve seen in Reserve Bank data going back to 1964. Fixed rates have been lower still in recent years, at closer to 2 per cent.
So anyone under 50 has spent their entire adult life watching interest rates fall, against a backdrop of very low inflation.
Their worldview has been shaped by rising asset prices and falling borrowing costs, a great combination for using leverage to create wealth.
New Zealand house prices have risen 6.7 per cent annually since 1990, although it’s the impact of leverage that has made the biggest difference.
In financial terms, this means using borrowed money to invest in something. In a rising market it works well, supercharging returns and leading to the strong gains many homeowners have enjoyed in recent years.
However, it comes with a catch. In a flat or falling market, leverage can do the opposite, magnifying losses.
Rising borrowing costs can add insult to injury, and in extreme cases, highly indebted borrowers can find themselves forced sellers during weak markets.
Those who were around in the 1970s and 1980s will recall what can happen when people (or businesses) bite off more than they can chew. This has left many with an ingrained aversion to debt.
Both camps are correct in their thinking; the truth is somewhere in the middle. Debt can be a great tool if used wisely, and people need to take some risks to build wealth. However, investors can end up on the wrong side of the equation if they borrow heavily at the wrong part of the cycle.
Mark Lister is head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. The information in this article is provided as information only, is intended to be general in nature, and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals, or risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.