Collins went down fighting... what now?
OPINION: Few political leaders retire undefeated. There’s something about the need for public acclaim, combined with the self-regard required to do the job in the first place that keeps them coming back for more. Hope springs eternal.
How often did everyone write off Winston Peters, only for him to return again and again from the political graveyard? On a full moon, some New Zealand First supporters still look hopefully to the north for signs of the master’s return.
The recent ructions in the National Party have been another reminder that political obituaries can be premature.
Out the exit door went Judith Collins, and back up the down staircase came Simon Bridges, professing to be reborn after 18 months in the wilderness.
Apparently, widely unloved politicians can return to positions of prominence even after they had demonstrated a rare inability to read the room during the early days of the pandemic.
Will the new National leadership team become an inspirational story of renewal, or a horror story about the return of the political undead?
At least Collins’ Last Stand meant she went down fighting.
The brief demotion of Bridges after some crude comments he made five years ago in the presence of a colleague, Jacqui Dean – and had personally apologised for – had never looked like anything other than an act of desperation.
As an attempt at cancel culture, it only accelerated the inevitable. Political correctness was not the only thing that seemed to have gone mad within the National Party last week.
Even so, the damagemay prove to be minimal. Already, there is a widespread sense of relief at the departure of Collins and her relentlessly divisive style. Change has come sooner than the ideal.
All along, the plan had been to allow Collins to keep the thankless job of Opposition leader ticking over until a few short months before Election 2023. At which point, the soul of the National Party would be taken out of the cryogenic deep freeze, thawed out and installed in the body of Christopher Luxon.
However, Collins could not fulfil even that limited role.
She was never just a caretaker, or a seat-warmer for the ambitions of others.
Pugnacious by nature, she was always in motion, even if that involved merely spinning around in circles.
A change in tonewill now be required. National‘s new leadership team will need to convince the caucus – and the wider public – that they can provide steadier hands at the tiller, and can offer amore positive vision to the electorate.
That’s easier said than done. Towin back the supporters National has lost to the Act Party, the new team will need some quick gains on the board.
The wider public though will want to see evidence that National is a credible government-in-waiting, and rampant displays of red meat negativity would seem likely to repel as many voters as they might attract.
These are complicating factors, and are due entirely to the hole that National has dug itself into of late.
Soon enough, the polls will be telling us whether the Collins departure has added fuel to Act’s takeover bid, or has finally arrested National’s decline.