Can belief defeat cold, hard logic?
If there is a word that has summed up the Kiwis camp this week, it’s belief.
As unlikely as it sounds, every player spoke of the genuine feeling they can cause a major upset at Anfield tomorrow, and retain their Four Nations crown.
There’s some residual anger over their Scotland performance and an expectation their best is yet to come at this tournament.
But cold, hard sporting logic says they have little chance.
The Kangaroos have more experience, more weapons and better combinations. They are missing few of their first-choice players, while the Kiwis are without the likes of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Kieran Foran, Simon Mannering, Dean Whare and Thomas Leuluai. Australia have four or five genuine playmakers, while Shaun Johnson has a makeshift No 6 beside him, have a superior kicking game and better goal kickers, and seem to thrive in English conditions.
So, is even contemplating a New Zealand victory realistic?
“100 per cent — of course,” said Kiwis prop Adam Blair. “This [ week] kind of takes me back to the 2008 World Cup. Previous history said we hadn’t won a World Cup in a long time and they wrote us off early. The Aussies smashed us early in the tournament and in the final week, it was the same thing.”
The Kiwis lost 30-6 to the Kangaroos in the group stages and were at long odds for the decider, but Blair recalls the momentum building.
“Right from the Monday, the belief was strong, and you could feel it,” he said. “From the moment we kicked off, I could tell something was going to happen.” There are differences, especially as the 2008 team had a core of experienced men this team doesn’t have, but the principles remain the same. “I think we just have to believe,” said Blair. “Belief firstly that we can win the game, and that everybody is going to do their job. It is just making sure that every individual believes in what we are doing. We can’t have anyone thinking we can’t win.”
Most importantly, the Kiwis have to find an 80-minute performance. It’s something they have managed only twice in the past nine tests (the 2015 Anzac test and second test v England last year) and the critical success factor.
“We have to be on for the whole game,” said Kiwis captain Jesse Bromwich. “To match Australia, that is what you have to do. They will keep coming at us and we have to match that effort.”
A Kiwis win tomorrow would be a major surprise, but it wouldn’t compare with some other New Zealand upsets of the modern era.
The 1987 win at Lang Park by Tony Gordon’s team and the victory in Melbourne four years later under Bob Bailey were much more seismic shocks, as was the memorable victory in Sydney in 2005 by Brian McClennan’s depleted side.
Rain, hail and sleet have hit Liverpool in the past 24 hours but the weather is expected to clear for the match, with a brisk temperature of 6degC expected for the clash. Autex — Proud sponsors of New Zealand rugby league since 1981.