Poll backs Watson

A growing number of New Zealanders believe convicted double murderer Scott Watson may be innocent. In a new survey, conducted by UMR Research, 77 per cent of respondents were unsure or thought Watson not guilty.

This continues a trend of doubt from polls by the same company in 2002 and 2004 that found 41 per cent then 56 per cent were unsure of or didn’t believe in his guilt.

Now, 23 per cent, compared to 44 per cent in 2004 and 59 per cent in 2002 thought Watson guilty.

The polls were of “a representative sample of 750 New Zealanders aged 18 or over”, UMR said.

Olivia Hope, 17, and Ben Smart, 23, went missing on New Year’s day 1998. Their bodies were not found but they were last seen boarding a boat with a yachtsman.

The Crown alleged Watson was that yachtsman. He was convicted of murder and sentenced to life imprisonment. Appeals failed but the case remains controversial because of the absence of physical evidence and the possibility the pair boarded a ketch rather than the sloop owned by Watson.

Mike Kalaugher, who in 2001 published The Marlborough

Mystery, commissioned the poll. He suspected the change in attitude was due to published scrutiny of the case, the most recent being the TV doco Doubt: The Scott

Watson Case in September. A lifelong sailor, Kalaugher said he was prompted to research his book because the evidence made no sense to him. “As of today there are no witnesses who support the proposition that the man boarding a yacht with Ben and Olivia was Watson. There are no witnesses who support the proposition that the boat they boarded was Watson’s. There are no witnesses who support the proposition that the boat was in the same part of the bay as Watson’s boat.”