Key puts Peters back in the game

A week has never seemed such a long time in politics.

Last Sunday, the Government was at 50 per cent support in the polls and sailing towards a fourth term. The Labour Party was dredging some comfort from retaining the Mt Roskill seat at a byelection and Winston Peters? Well, if Winston can be believed, he was expecting something like the bombshell John Key dropped on Monday.

Winston cannot be believed, of course. Not even his supporters take him that seriously. They dote on him despite — or perhaps even because of — the outrageous claims he makes.

If there is a reckless spirit afoot in the voting world this year, and it continues in 2017, New Zealand might not be immune to it. All bets are off for the election next year anyway with Key’s departure.

His personal popularity was a large part of National’s appeal. The next polls are almost certain to find the gap narrowed between National and Labour-Greens, giving Peters the pivotal role he craves.

He will play it for all the attention it is worth, refusing to give the public any indication which way he will go. On his previous form, there should be no doubt about it. Twice he has been in a position to be courted by both major parties and each time he has gone with the election winner, National in 1996 and Labour in 2005.

Neither association ended happily for him. Half his supporters deserted him when he went with National and his small caucus split when Jenny Shipley eventually sacked him. In the later government he came to grief over an election donation he had denied receiving and lost his seat in 2008. So he may prefer to stay neutral next time, particularly if National has the most votes.

Theoretically a coalition of “losers” could become the government but it has not happened in 20 years of MMP. No party will be anxious to take the first plunge. Labour and National would prefer to lead a government from an election-winning position. Labour must be hardly able to believe its good fortune this week but it still has a big task ahead.

In fact, Key may have done Andrew Little no favours if the opportunity opened by Key’s departure causes Labour to reassess whether it has the best leader to take advantage of it. Suddenly anything is possible.