Cup of 48 sides looks a mistake

Fifa’s World Cup expansion plan could prove one of its biggest mistakes. The 2018 tournament’s group phase has again underlined the perfection of the current format. Drama, excitement, intrigue, upsets — all in the first two weeks.

But that is set to disappear. In 2026, the tournament will grow to 48 countries. That will swell Fifa’s coffers but also dilute the value and meaning of the first phase.

And the proposed 16 groups of three will be a disaster.

Another Spain-Portugal classic? Forget it. Germany versus Mexico, Croatia against Argentina, Brazil clashing with Serbia and Switzerland, England confronting Belgium? No chance.

There will still be 48 games in the first phase but almost all will be meaningless. None of the big guns will meet each other in pool play.

Instead we can look forward to a group with, for example, Brazil, Canada and China, and another with Germany, Honduras and Uzbekistan. Or how about Italy, Trinidad and Tobago and Oman, or Argentina, Haiti and Kenya.

The magic of the current format is in the uncertainty and the fact that rarely do teams, no matter their pedigree, stroll to the second round. Only Uruguay and Belgium had 100 per cent records this time and the tournament has been blessed with unexpected results and memorable moments.

That’s the unique aspect of the World Cup, compared with other major sports such as rugby and cricket, where the first round is largely academic.

The expanded format also dramatically limits the chances of a cinderella run, such as Costa Rica in 2014, Ghana or Paraguay in 2010, or Australia in 2006. With only three teams, and a top seed that will have their matches six days apart (while the other two teams play twice in the space of three days) the odds are stacked in favour of the big guns.

So while there will be more countries than ever before getting a chance to play in the World Cup finals (including New Zealand), their stays will be mostly limited to just a week.

There’s nothing wrong with expansion but not too much, too soon. A better option would be 40 teams (eight groups of five would be brilliant, even if 80 pool games would never be ratified.)