Can Don­ald Trump do the un­think­able?

Kapi-Mana News - - CONVERSATIONS - ROSE HUD­SON Karori VALMA CROW­LEY Ti­tahi Bay GOR­DON CAMP­BELL

to Plim­mer­ton do­main. It is also a cy­cle track, but is very wide and safe for both groups.

The other is a di­ver­sion from this walk­way just past Whenua Tapu ceme­tery.

Walk a short dis­tance along Air­lie Rd and over the rail bridge, and look for the sign for the Taua Tapu Track on the left.

You go up and across farm­land with glo­ri­ous views out to Mana Is­land, with the op­tions of ei­ther walk­ing down the track and Mo­tuhara Rd (with lovely views) or drop­ping down from the end of the Taua Tapu Track to Kare­hana Bay on a de­light­ful tui-song bush track to Re­serve Rd in Plim­mer­ton, then along the beach front to Plim­mer­ton Vil­lage. There is even a third op­tion – to take the coastal route from Pukerua Bay to Plim­mer­ton.

Drop down to the beach on one of the two tracks from Pukerua Bay (the Goat Track off Rawhiti Rd, or off Pukerua Bay Beach Rd) and then fol­low the coast, keep­ing in mind this is rougher on foot and is prob­a­bly hard go­ing for small chil­dren un­less they are keen-as types.

This is the long­est route of the three.

SAD TALE OF TI­TAHI BAY THE­ATRE

The Ti­tahi Bay com­mu­nity is very sup­port­ive, but sadly is un­able to sup­port its lo­cal the­atre.

In Au­gust 2012 the the­atre’s land­lord, Porirua City Coun­cil, de­clared its build­ing, the Ti­tahi Bay Com­mu­nity Hall, to be un­safe, and closed the doors.

Porirua Lit­tle The­atre is of­fi­cially home­less and the his­toric Ti­tahi Bay Com­mu­nity Hall is fall­ing to pieces.

It was like an off-stage the­atri­cal melo­drama, with so many lo­cal ac­tors made home­less by an un­car­ing wicked land­lord – Porirua City Coun­cil.

It is hoped the new city coun­cil, led by a new and en­thu­si­as­tic mayor, will res­cue Porirua Lit­tle The­atre, and en­cour­age re­pair and restora­tion, rather than de­mo­li­tion, thereby al­low­ing the the­atre com­pany to re­turn to its home base in White­house Rd, Ti­tahi Bay.

Then the lo­cal com­mu­nity can once again sup­port live the­atre in the Bay, and en­cour­age lo­cal ac­tors to give it a go on stage. as they once did for lo­cal ac­tors Ray Hen­wood (King Lear at Circa The­atre), and Paul Bar­rett (cur­rently tour­ing New Zealand in HMSPi­nafore).

FIRE­MEN THANKED

May I say through you how great the fire­men from Ti­tahi Bay per­formed on May 5 when Main Road in Ti­tahi Bay flooded. I think some fire boys from Welling­ton came to help as well.

Two lovely young lads lifted me through a win­dow and car­ried me to higher ground then one pig­gy­backed me to the fire en­gine and I was driven in style to my daugh­ter and son-in-law’s home.

What a pity that the cam­era man didn’t come fur­ther into TI­tahi Bay Main Road and White­house Roads to see how much dam­age was suf­fered there, too.

I am­for­ever grate­ful and that goes with big thanks to all con­cerned, but a spe­cial thanks for An­dre and Chris.

In­cred­i­bly, the United States seems to have set­tled on Don­ald Trump and Hil­lary Clin­ton as the con­tenders to be­come the most pow­er­ful per­son on Earth. Non-Amer­i­cans have thus be­gun bit­ing their nails in earnest about the prospect of Don­ald Trump sit­ting in the White House, with his fin­ger on the nu­clear but­ton.

Most ob­servers still do not be­lieve Trump will emerge tri­umphant in Novem­ber, although a size­able mi­nor­ity ar­gue that he has cred­i­ble hopes of do­ing so. Here’s a brief sum­mary of those op­pos­ing points of view:

Trump Can’t Win

Some 65 of the 72 opin­ion polls taken dur­ing 2016 have shown Clin­ton beat­ing Trump, of­ten by wide mar­gins. Given how po­larised the US is, this vir­tual con­sen­sus has to be sig­nif­i­cant.

Of late, the Repub­li­can sup­port base has been among white men, a group John McCain won by 57-43 per cent over Barack Obama in 2008, and among white women, whom Mitt Rom­ney car­ried by 14 points over Obama in 2012.

White vot­ers how­ever, form a shrink­ing part of the US elec­torate. Any Repub­li­can lead among whites tends to be negated by its crush­ing deficit among mi­nori­ties. Trump is viewed neg­a­tively by 77 per cent of His­panic vot­ers, worse even than Rom­ney, who lost His­pan­ics by 73-27 per cent in 2012.

Rom­ney lost women vot­ers 56-44 per cent over­all in 2012, and Trump is polling even worse among women, thanks to a se­ries of misog­y­nist com­ments.

Mean­ing: as Trump in­creases his ap­peal to white male vot­ers, the more that should gal­vanise women vot­ers and the His­panic and black com­mu­ni­ties to mobilise to stop him.

Trump also faces un­prece­dented op­po­si­tion from tra­di­tional Repub­li­can donors. Al­ready, big donors such as the Koch broth­ers have sig­nalled they are con­sid­er­ing sit­ting out the 2016 contest.

Con­ser­va­tive Amer­i­can colum­nists from Jennifer Ru­bin to David Brooks have con­demned Trump, and a size­able share of the core Repub­li­can base ap­pears will­ing to skip the elec­tion, or vote for a spoiler. Ul­ti­mately, many in­flu­en­tial Repub­li­cans seek­ing to mod­ernise the party share al­most noth­ing in com­mon with Trump’s right-wing pop­ulism, which seems based on a nos­tal­gic hunger for the Amer­ica of the 1950s – when man­u­fac­tur­ing jobs were plen­ti­ful, ev­ery pub­lic sign was in English, and no-one had to think twice be­fore say­ing any­thing around women, or mi­nori­ties.

Fi­nally, Trump’s his­tory of bad busi­ness deal­ings and his re­luc­tance to re­lease his tax records seem bound to hurt him dur­ing the months ahead.

‘‘The world should be wor­ried, but shouldn’t be los­ing sleep just yet.’’

Trump Can Win.

Con­versely, once Trump gets of­fi­cially anointed as the Repub­li­can nom­i­nee, that will lend him sub­stance and le­git­i­macy. Al­ready, polls show Trump clos­ing the gap in key swing states such as Penn­syl­va­nia, Ohio and Florida.

Also, Clin­ton is al­most as un­pop­u­lar as Trump, and is a rel­a­tively poor cam­paigner. She is widely seen to be a crea­ture of Wall Street and the Wash­ing­ton es­tab­lish­ment, and many Bernie San­ders sup­port­ers will not vote for her. New voter reg­is­tra­tion laws passed by a Repub­li­can Congress will also mean that many votes cast for Clin­ton by poor, black and His­panic vot­ers will be dis­al­lowed.

Cur­rently, elec­tion pre­dic­tion markets give Trump only a 30 per cent chance of vic­tory. The world should be wor­ried, but shouldn’t be los­ing sleep just yet.

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