The path to the playoffs
Home semi a chance for Manawatu
One win from the Turbos’ final four games may be enough to scrap into the national provincial championship playoffs.
But Manawatu coach Jeremy Cotter will have surely set a higher bar than that to close out the season with a home semifinal not out of the question as they enter the final three weeks of the competition.
The Turbos have three wins from their six matches so far to sit third on the championship ladder just ahead of North Harbour.
But they are eight points behind Wellington in second and a further six back from Otago in first.
They appear locked into a fiveway battle for the playoffs with Southland and Northland not mathematically eliminated, but well off the pace.
Manawatu have four games remaining, including two next week.
A win over fellow playoff contender Bay of Plenty should be enough to guarantee a top-four finish.
The Turbos are listed as favourites for Saturday’s clash with the Magpies, despite it being a crossover premiership match, and will be favourites when they play Bay of Plenty.
But it is the matches against Wellington and Otago which will be important if the Turbos want to claim a home semifinal.
Otago have a tough run home with an away match to Auckland before hosting an in-form Counties Manukau side and then travelling to the Boneyard to play the Turbos.
They could continue their winning form and pick up wins in all those games, but three losses is not out of the question either, which would open the door for the Turbos.
Wellington sit in a more powerful position.
Their remaining include home games matches against Southland, Taranaki and Waikato and an away match against Manawatu.
North Harbour are the other likely semifinalists. They have matches against Bay of Plenty, Canterbury, Tasman and Northland.
But Bay of Plenty proved against Auckland last weekend that they are no pushovers.
The Steamers have piled up the bonus points this year to be sitting on 12 points despite just the one win.
They would likely need to win all of their remaining matches to crack the top four.
The Turbos’ run to the playoffs starts on Saturday against an outof-sorts Hawke’s Bay unit.
The Magpies have won one game this year.
Manawatu had the wood on them in preseason winning both matches 59-0 in Palmerston North and 54-17 in Napier.
But plenty has changed for both teams since then so a high scoreline is unlikely.