No rules for farming in 2042
Dairying will have no regulations or legislation to control it and will rely on market signals in the year 2042 says Emeritus Professor Russ Tilman.
Tilman gave a paper about the future of dairying at last week’s Fertilizer and Lime Research Centre conference at Massey University in Palmerston North. About 250 people, from regional councils, research institutions and fertiliser companies attended the workshop.
Tilman looked into his crystal ball to see what dairying in 2042 might entail.
He said in the future dairying would still be a major export earner, but its success would not come at the expense of the environment.
‘‘With strong financial incentives to reduce the impacts, dairy farmers will protect water quality.’’
Tilman said export buyers would know where they were buying from and what happened on farms.
‘‘In 2042, improved environmental management on dairy farms is just one example of a much broader national strategy to brand New Zealand as a world leader in sustainable economic management.’’
He said within dairying, minimising the impacts on water quality were part of the larger quality brand that had improved market accesss and premiums.
‘‘Farmers see it is important to comply because markets will pay and that will work its way through to the milk payout.’’
Tilman said the approach of using legislation and rules to improve water quality, would have gone.
‘‘In its place is a simple requirement for farmers to take all reasonable steps to reduce their environmental impact, with the aim af returning water as close as possible to its pristine state.’’
The bar for a financial reward would be continually lifted, he said.
Tilman said farmers would be paid on a star rating with about 45 cents/kilogram difference between one star farm, and five stars.
He thought a farm with two stars would not survive.
‘‘There will be star rating systems on the greenhouse gas footprint, nitrate leaching footprint, farm environmental infrastructure and management, animal welfare and milk safety and quality.’’
Tilman said farmers would pay an environmental tax to the government which would be paid back to those who had little or no impact on the environment, while those who had a major impact would pay the tax and receive nothing.
‘‘So in 2042, farmers will have the financial incentive to get better environmentally and will see it as important, because they’ll be paid for things like being grass fed, or having high animal welfare.
He said dairy farming would hardly have changed.
‘‘People will talk about profit, not production and there will be a culture of continuos upgrading in innovation of farmers and advisors.’’
Tilman said in most dairy systems cows would spend 80 per cent of their time in the paddock, and the remaining time in a covered yard.
‘‘There would be very high standards of animal welfare in housing. And there will be methane capture in the housing of animals and in the milking shed.’’
He said in 2048, all cows would be milked through robotic milking machines.
‘‘Pastures will be improved and cows, so there will be less greenhouse gas emissions. And per cow there will be better production and improved longevity.’’