Despair over another big drought
The North Canterbury drought is far from over for Ethelton Valley sheep farmer Daniel Maxwell and other farmers who are ‘‘just holding out’’ for a good autumn to ward off the fourth year of extremely dry conditions.
Although more rain fell in early summer than the past two years, the only green in the landscape now was brassica and lucerne crops, said Maxwell, the region’s Federated Farmers meat and fibre vice-chairman. The early summer rain had got the crops established, he said.
In December 40 millimetres of rain fell and a further 34mm in January, but northwesterly winds had since ‘‘sucked all the moisture out of the ground,’’ Maxwell said.
‘‘The aquifers are really low. On top of this after the earthquake, some farmers found their springs had moved and they had to find new ones.’’
‘‘We’ve had three dry autumns and we can’t afford another. This is on everyone’s minds. If we don’t get a good autumn I don’t know what will happen.’’
Motunau Beach sheep farmer and top dressing pilot Bill Byrch said the coast was ‘‘getting dry’’.
‘‘The trouble is we have been dry for three years now and there are no reserves in the water table. Rain is only penetrating two or three inches. Feed is hand to mouth.’’
Other farmers were reaping the rewards of the dry weather.
Federated Farmers arable chairman for North Canterbury Reuben Carter said dryland crops were looking good ’’from a cropping perspective’’. ’’It’s been a terrific spring for crops,’’ he said. ’’There have been barley yields of seven tonnes per hectare which are very good for dryland barley, and further north they are getting eight tonnes per hectare.’’
Peas and ryegrass were showing good yields, he said. ’’We want the nor’westers to dry out the crops, which isn’t ideal for pastoral farmers. It adds a third to the cost of harvest if a crop has to be run through the dryer and you don’t get that cost back.’’
NIWA National Climate Centre principal scientist Chris Brandolino said there was a 45 per cent probability North Canterbury would experience near average temperatures, rainfall, soil moisture and river flows over the next three months.
There was also a 90 per cent chance of El Nino neutral conditions over the next threemonth period. However, later in the year, the chance of a return to El Nino increased substantially to reach 37 per cent in August to October. ‘‘This doesn’t exclude other outcomes,’’ he said. ‘‘It means that when the dust settles, these outcomes are the most likely.’’