Australia, South Africa problems threaten NZ rugby

OPINION: New Zealand Rugby is concerned about the state of Australian and South African rugby but probably not as concerned as it should be.

I lived in Australia for a decade until 2012 and the sporting landscape there is poorly understood by New Zealanders.

It is recognised that Australia has a competitive sporting market and rugby faces its challenges but that’s a relatively superficial analysis.

From my experience there is a segment of the Australian sporting public who would actually like to see the Australian Rugby Union go up in flames.

They consist of two groups. The first is the die-hard rugby league fans who regard rugby as an elitist, private school, Sydney north shore old boys club that doesn’t reflect them or their communities.

This group is not for turning. It will always be there, and you can never win them over even though the modern Wallabies themselves come from a diverse range of backgrounds.

But there is another group, of casual sports fans and ex-rugby fans, who feel the game has completely lost its way.

The dilution of Super Rugby’s quality is the not the only reason for this but it is a big one. They have seen a competition that was once unmissable, containing three Australian teams of genuine quality, turn into one that is almost unwatchable.

And they hold the ARU responsible.

That is why the highest attendance in Australia so far this year was the 15,000 souls who turned out to see the Reds play the Sharks, and why TV audiences have plummeted since the competition’s heyday.

Australian rugby - at the Super Rugby level - isn’t heading towards a crisis, it’s already there.

What has this got to do with New Zealand Rugby, which is a well-oiled machine? Well, nothing and everything.

When Sanzaar executives sit down this week to discuss the future of the competition it’s not simply a case of hoping those Aussies and South Africans can sort out their problems.

We must recognise, whether we like it or not, that their problems are New Zealand’s problems when it comes to the long-term health of the game.

At the moment, New Zealand is the beautifully appointed, doubleglazed, fibre-connected room in a house that is badly affected by subsidence.

South Africa is a slightly different story to Australia.

There are those who believe that their fortunes can be turned around quickly, especially at Springbok level, with some quality coaching.

That’s a plausible argument but I see the empty seats at their Super Rugby stadiums and read about the millions (yes, millions) who have switched off their TVS in the past five years and I worry.

That New Zealand’s greatest rugby rival can only produce one Super Rugby team, the Lions, capable of winning the tournament is a huge concern. Do I over-dramatise? Before you answer that, have a think back to last year and the first time the All Blacks played a national team that really has a clear idea on and off the field about how to build sustainable success. They lost to Ireland. Of course they went on to beat the Irish a few weeks later in Dublin, even though as Sam Cane told me a month ago that they didn’t play that much bette. However, it was a tough affair, far tougher than anything the All Blacks had faced in the Rugby Championship.

The clear danger is that a weak Australia and a weak South Africa will have a corrosive effect on the All Blacks. If New Zealand players are not consistently exposed to high quality opposition they will suffer.

So what to do at this Sanzaar meeting at the end of the week?

New Zealand Rugby is in a tough spot because it can’t be seen to tell the other unions what do to but this shouldn’t rule out some spirited advocacy behind the scenes.

The message should be: cut your teams and bring back some quality to this competition before you bring us all down.