Auckland is NZ’S engine for job growth
Gisborne is expected to be the weakest in terms of job growth
Auckland will continue to be the engine of New Zealand’s job growth, Christchurch will lag and Wellington will get more of the same, a new report predicts.
The latest regional perspectives report from economics agency Infometrics forecasts Auckland, which has seen the strongest employment growth of any region since 2011, will continue to lead New Zealand until at least 2021.
While noting that Auckland’s growth per person has ‘‘not been that spectacular’’ in recent years, Infometrics says New Zealand’s largest city is expected to add 83,550 jobs over the next four years.
That would represent both the largest number of jobs, and the largest percentage gain, an annual increase of 2.4 per cent. Nationwide, the the number of jobs is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent a year until 2021.
‘‘With New Zealand’s labour market expected to remain relatively tight throughout the next four years, we anticipate that net migration will hold at above-average levels, sustaining strong population growth in Auckland,’’ the report predicts.
‘‘The expanding population will provide a solid basis for continued [economic] growth in the region, which will be magnified by the continued expansion of key service industries that are important to the Auckland economy.’’
While Infometrics says all regions in New Zealand will grow job numbers in the coming years, it points to a marked slowdown in Christchurch, with residential, non-residential and infrastructure construction all in decline.
Infometrics expects employment growth of 1.1 per cent in the garden city over the next two years, half the national average ‘‘and well below the city’s 4.7 per annum average growth between March 2012 and March 2015’’, Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said.
New Zealand’s capital, meanwhile, appears set to achieve consistent moderate growth, below the national average, just like the period since 2011.
Despite highlighting strong growth in the healthcare sector and some growth in the financial sector, Infometrics says employment growth in Wellington is expected to be 1.9 per cent in the next two years, before falling to 0.6 per cent in 2019-2021.
Marlborough and Otago are expected to see employment growth slightly above the national average over the next four years, at 1.8 per cent a year.
Gisborne is expected to be the weakest in terms of job growth, at just 0.5 per cent per annum, while Hawke’s Bay, Taranaki, Manawatu-whanganui, West Coast and Southland are tipped to see job growth at less than 1 per cent per year.
Nationally, the report says New Zealand is experiencing strong growth, with a buoyant construction sector and tourism sectors.
The population is growing at the strongest level in 40 years, driven by record net migration gains, while a strong labour market has boosted household spending.
Infometrics warned there were risks, such as the prospect of trade sanctions from the United States hurting Chinese growth.
‘‘Imbalances in New Zealand’s housing market also have the potential to derail our economy.’’
The report predicts the economy will expand by an average of 2.6 per cent over the next four years.