Small towns dying from city flight
Rural regions are in decline but the Government could do more to slow their stagnation, says Massey University’s Professor Paul Spoonley.
Governments could step in to assist regional economic development. One way would be to direct that some services be located in regions. He gave the example in the United Kingdom where vehicle licensing was carried out in Hull.
‘‘Do we let our regions die? People won’t go into a community where there are no services,’’ he said.
Spoonley, the Pro Vicechancellor of Humanities and Social Sciences, told the Future Farms conference in Palmerston North that New Zealand demographics were changing rapidly.
Some regional and local councils were in denial about people deserting regions. They were not only losing their young adults but also migrants who were shifting to bigger centres.
Two-thirds of regions were experiencing population stagnation, and the people who lived in them were ageing. For example, there are now more over 65-year-olds than 0-14-year-olds in Taranaki.
‘‘There’s not much to stop Auckland’s growth unless a volcano blows. There will be 40 per cent of New Zealanders living in Auckland in 10 years’ time, compared to 33 per cent at present.’’
Spoonley said Auckland’s growth was unprecedented and unique in the OECD. No other city comprised such a large percentage of a country’s population and cities such as Paris and London made up less than 20 per cent of the total population of France and the UK.
High migration levels had come about because New Zealand had one of the highest skills shortages of any country. Before the great financial crisis it had the largest shortage in the OECD, today it is fourth. While initially some migrants lived in the regions, most leave within a short time.
‘‘People actually don’t like to work remotely and they like to congregate in large cities. We need good stories about why people should stay in local communities,’’ Spoonley said.
In some regions migration had been positive, and transformed the local economy. He gave the example of Filipino dairy workers in Southland.
Immigration had been responsible for most of the economic growth in recent years, placing New Zealand ahead of most developed countries.
Regions could do more to help themselves, by developing their own immigration policies, in the way that Christchurch had done.