If Read’s out, who comes in?

OPINION: If No 8 Kieran Read isn’t fit for the first test against the British and Irish Lions, do the All Blacks selectors stick to past performers or take a punt?

Even as All Blacks captain Read was having an operation on his fractured right thumb in Bloemfontein, South Africa, yesterday morning - an injury he suffered in the Crusaders’ 48-21 victory over the Cheetahs - the game of asking who could replace him had begun.

First the facts. It usually takes about six to eight weeks to recover from such injuries.

The All Blacks’ first test against the Lions, in Auckland, is on June 24. That is eight weeks away. The clock is ticking for Read.

Should Read’s recovery take six weeks, he will be available to start for the Crusaders against the Lions in Christchurch on June 10.

If he is unable to meet that deadline the All Blacks selectors could ask that he target the proposed game against Samoa, which is expected to be played on June 16. Even if Read is required to get through just 40 minutes, it could be enough to prove he is ready to go for the first test against the Lions.

Adding to the conundrum is the fact that blindside flanker Jerome Kaino needed surgery on his knee to repair a torn meniscus. Six weeks has been mentioned as a starting point, in terms of recovery.

Between them, Read and Kaino have made 174 test appearances. Being unable to tap into their intellectual property, as well as being denied their power, tenacity and set-piece skills, is a concern.

Little has been seen of Read this year. Surgery on his right wrist meant he delayed his return to the Crusaders until the round-eight match against the Sunwolves, and he amassed just 126 minutes prior to leaving the field in Bloemfontein.

Because both Read and Kaino could be in doubt for that first test against the Lions, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen and his fellow selectors are going to have to increase the list of potential replacements for both back row jobs.

The last person to start at No 8 for the All Blacks, when Read wasn’t required for action, was Steven Luatua against Italy in Rome last November.

Luatua didn’t please his masters at NZ Rugby when he signed with English club Bristol, and he will join them later this year, but deserves to be considered to face the Lions if Read is unavailable.

This is no time to hold grudges. You could also build a case for Luatua to start at blindside flanker.

The same could be said for the Highlanders’ Liam Squire, a big rugged operator who can slot in at No 6 and No 8.

If the selectors decided to snub Luatua, and stick Squire on the side of the scrum, it still means they need a No 8. Ardie Savea has done very well in the unfamiliar role when starting there for the Hurricanes, but the question is whether he can be risked against a Lions pack that is clearly going to try to put the heat on the New Zealanders in the scrums.

The Highlanders’ Luke Whitelock has played just one test, getting time as a replacement at No 8 against Japan in Tokyo in 2013; yet he could provide balance to the back row. Whitelock has flourished since moving to Dunedin from the Crusaders; he is a decent lineout option, defends with zeal and is always quick off the ground to make the next cleanout.

Jordan Taufua lacks the height of other challengers, but is still a reliable lineout option for the Crusaders, hits very hard in defence, carries the ball hard at the line and always logs big minutes.

The national selectors have eight weeks to mull their options.