NZ won’t do a Trump on climate accord

"New Zealand is committed to playing its part in the global climate change response.'' Minister for Climate Change Issues Paula Bennett

Now that President Donald Trump has pulled the United States out of the Paris Climate Agreement, you might be reasonably alarmed it could collapse faster than the TPP.

Relax, it’s not quite that serious.

Or rather, climate change is incredibly serious but it appears the world’s commitment to tackling it remains serious – with or without the US. That goes for New Zealand’s involvement in the agreement as well.

Here’s the state of play, where New Zealand is concerned, on the Paris Agreement.

What is the Paris Agreement?

The agreement commits the 196 countries that signed it, to limit global warming ‘‘well below’’ 2 degrees Celsius, and if possible below 1.5C, until 2100.

Most immediately, the target is to limit global warming to a 2C increase by 2030. On top of the 2C target, they have promised to raise $100 billion a year by 2020 to help poor countries adapt their economies, and accepted a new goal of net zero emissions by ‘‘later this century’’.

It is not a binding agreement, and calls on countries to make voluntary contributions to reach the collective target, as well as periodic reporting to record progress.

Why is the US pulling out?

Trump has always maintained he would ‘‘cancel’’ the Paris Climate Agreement. He has previously said climate change was a ‘‘hoax’’ created by the Chinese.

Incidentally, the US withdrawal would put them alongside Syria and Nicaragua.

That’s what happened with the TPP, look where it left that agreement. Where does it leave New Zealand?

Well, the Paris Climate Agreement is not so dependent on the US as the TPP was. In fact, it’s actually not dependent on the US at all.

The departure of the US is a significant blow: if the world is fighting against climate change, then the absence of the US will have to be made up for.

Minister for Climate Change Issues Paula Bennett says: ‘‘It would be disappointing if the US chose to withdraw from the Paris Agreement’’.

But just because the federal Government pulls out of the agreement, does not mean individual states can’t remain working towards its goals.

So we’re still in?

Absolutely, says Bennett.

‘‘New Zealand is committed to playing its part in the global climate change response. We have an ambitious work programme underway to implement our own commitments.’’

What do we have to do under it?

Well, that’s open for debate – not least because the agreement does not specify exactly how countries have to reach their target. However, all countries are called upon to set their own targets and then formally submit those to the United Nations.

New Zealand has done that and the Government’s target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

This target is equivalent to 11 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030. The Government intends to meet the target through a mix of domestic emission reductions, the removal of carbon dioxide by forests and participation in international carbon markets.

What will it cost to meet our targets?

Recent official information has put the cost of meeting the commitments under the emissions trading scheme near $14b over 10 years.

That would be without addressing New Zealand’s own emissions, but that should be taken as advice rather than a hard-and-fast bill at this point.

In the Budget, Finance Minister Steven Joyce unveiled a total of $4m dedicated to climate change – and was roundly criticised for the ‘‘pittance’’ amount.

But he says that is dedicated to policy work to developing a full plan, and it was ‘‘difficult to say’’ how much taxpayers would have to spend on international carbon credits – effectively a payment to have other countries do the work for us.

But what’s the cost of doing nothing?

Failing to act could have disastrous and lasting effects for the world.

The UN has labelled climate change as one of the greatest threats the world is facing, and people were already experiencing its impacts, including changing weather patterns, rising sea level, and more extreme weather events.