Asia war ‘big concern’ for Aust

AUSTRALIA/PHILIPPINES: The war launched by so-called Islamic State in south-east Asia in recent weeks will be a big problem for Australia for decades, according to a top US military and intelligence figure.

A force of about 500 Daesh fighters took control of the city of Marawi in the Philippines five weeks ago and the Philippines army has failed to retake it, despite fierce daily fighting.

‘‘This is a big concern for you,’’ retired US general and former CIA chief David Petraeus told Fairfax Media.

‘‘This is not a problem that can be resolved in years but in decades, and one where Australia could take the lead,’’ he said.

‘‘A point that political leaders have to communicate is that this is a generational struggle.

‘‘The US could get involved at some point’’, but there is no sign of that. So far, no collective regional response to the 34-day-old crisis has emerged.

Philippines President Rodriguez Duterte repeatedly promises to wipe out the Daesh fighters, but his army has missed two deadlines for victory and the fighting continues.

Two of the Philippines’ neighbours – Singapore and Malaysia – have joined Manila in starting naval patrols of the Sulu Sea to intercept Daesh supporters.

But the effectiveness of this is in question. Jakarta-based expert Sidney Jones says the terrorists move mainly by scheduled commercial flights.

Petraeus led allied forces, including Australians, in the Iraq surge and in Afghanistan. He was the only US general to have commanded Australian forces in two theatres, he said.

The outbreak was a failure of vigilance by governments, including his own country’s, he said.

‘‘Collectively, a lot of us – including the Philippines government, which was concentrating its efforts on counter-narcotics – took our eye off that particular ball. It shows you have to have a sustained commitment.’’

As Daesh is forced to yield its territories in Iraq and Syria, it has opened a front in the Philippines. It operates under the banner ‘‘Islamic State – Eastern Region’’ led by Isnilon Hapilon, a so-called emir appointed by Daesh.

More than 200,000 civilians reportedly have been displaced by the fighting. At least 280 militants, 69 soldiers and policemen, and 26 civilians have been killed so far, according to the army.

The Australian government last week agreed to send two Orion P-3 hi-tech spy planes to help the Philippines fight the terrorists, and $920,000 in aid for displaced civilians.

The fighters, who had assembled undetected over some months, abruptly attacked the city of Marawi and raised the black flag of Daesh on May 23.

By establishing a base for Daesh operations across the region, they posed ‘‘a direct threat to Australia and our interests’’, Australian Defence Minister Marise Payne said.

Petraeus said Australia could take leadership under the model of French intervention in the continuing crisis in the African nation of Mali.

‘‘This could be a case like Mali, where a significant country that has a particular interest and could conceivably be leader takes overall leadership’’ at the request of the host nation, he said.

Mali was thrown into crisis in 2012 when Islamists took over an ethnic Tuareg rebellion in the north and turned it into a savage attack on the government.

In danger of state collapse, Mali turned to its former colonial ruler.

Under a UN mandate, Paris mobilised and contained the uprising.

Five years later, about 11,000 UN and French peacekeepers remain in Mali. A state of emergency is in force at least until October.

Petraeus said that a response to the Marawi crisis and the persistence of Islamist extremism in the Philippines would require a full suite of political, economic and military elements under a regional coalition.

‘‘This is serious,’’ said Sidney Jones of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, ‘‘because a pro-isis group in the region has proved it can capture and hold important territory.’’ - Fairfax

"This is not a problem that can be resolved in years but in decades, and one where Australia could take the lead. A point that political leaders have to communicate is that this is a generational struggle.’’ Former CIA chief David Petraeus