Popping Palmy
The Palmerston North seat has had a Labour Party politician keeping it warm for more than 40 years, but Jono Galuszka finds the Left still has plenty of work to do in the city.
Take a look at an electorate map of New Zealand and Palmerston North immediately jumps out. The seat has been a zit on the National Party’s derriere for years. A dot of Labour Party red surrounded by the National blue on all sides.
You have to go back to 1978 to find a time Labour did not hold Palmerston North. On face value, the seat appears to be a Labour stronghold.
But a look under the surface shows voters are savvy when it comes to MMP. While the city’s MP, Iain Lees-galloway, is from Labour, the party vote for the past three elections has been easily won by National.
That is not to say Lees-galloway has performed poorly in attracting party votes. While Labour polled at 25 per cent nationwide in 2014, 30.88 per cent of Palmerston North voters voted for Labour.
That is despite National throwing the kitchen sink at Palmerston North last election. It drafted in the mayor at the time, Jono Naylor, and had senior ministers visiting at least once a week. All this only managed to trim Lees-galloway’s majority back to 2212.
Some political junkies have wondered if the lack of a Green candidate in 2014 kept Palmerston North with Labour, as the Greens’ 2011 candidate took 1485 votes.
The Green equation has changed this year, with Thomas Nash taking leave from his disarmament campaigning work to stand in Palmerston North.
He will hoover up some electorate votes, despite only campaigning for the party, as his campaign has been one of the more prominent.
The 300 people he attracted to his campaign launch was nearly as many as NZ First leader Winston Peters got for his launch in Palmerston North.
But plenty of people expect Leesgalloway to comfortably hold the seat in September regardless, especially after fending off Naylor and National selecting Adrienne Pierce, best known as a Hasting District councillor, as its candidate.
Pierce, however, is not having a bar of that. A large part of her pitch has been about getting a voice in Government, reflecting confidence her party will hold on to power.
Looking at election hoardings around the city shows where her support is coming from at the moment. Her face is smiling from fences and signposts belonging to property developers, farmers and business owners.
Many of those businesses have links to transport companies, which have one big issue – the Manawatu Gorge.
The indefinite closure of the road has delivered a hit to Palmerston North’s reputation as a transport and logistics hub.
All four candidates – Lees-galloway, Pierce, Nash and NZ First’s MP Darroch Ball – have different suggestions on how to fix it.
They include investing in rail (Nash), building an alternative road (Leesgalloway), getting politicians from Hawke’s Bay to Whanganui to pitch a case to whoever the transport minister is after the election (Pierce), and cut-and-cover tunnels through what was the route (Ball).
The city’s housing situation is also coming to the fore.
House prices are experiencing doubledigit growth, while demand for state and social housing is also increasing – both Labour and National have announced plans to build more.
Then there is the case of youth crime in the city – a hot topic in the wake of a series of robberies allegedly carried out by youths.
Ball, who polled third in the electorate in 2014, but made it to Parliament on the party list, has been attacking the issue with gusto.
The former high school teacher and army officer is pushing for tougher punishments for young offenders, with press releases about the issue coming with titles such as ‘‘Time to throw the book at young offenders’’ and ‘‘Wave of youth crime will worsen’’.
How Ball and NZ First performs this election will be especially interesting.
He says Palmerston North will not be as straightforward as some think.
A Green candidate usually takes 2000 votes, while Pierce ran for mayor in Hastings and tried to get the Tukituki candidacy before being picked as National’s Palmerston North candidate.
‘‘Do Palmerston North people appreciate that? I’m not sure,’’ Ball says.
‘‘I think it’s going to be an interesting election locally, I truly do, and I don’t want to pick it.’’
Ball’s status in NZ First has grown sharply. Ranked 10th in 2014, he has rocketed up to fifth in his party’s list this election.
On the current polls, he is safe as houses to have another stint in Parliament..