It’s National versus the rest
Opposition candidates sense a mood for change in the Wairarapa electorate, but history suggests otherwise. Paul Mitchell reports.
The Wairarapa electorate’s two main challengers are betting on a wave of discontent to loosen National’s tight grip on the vast seat, which stretches along the bottom of the North Island’s east coast.
In 2014, National MP Alastair Scott swept the electorate with a 6771-vote majority. Labour’s Kieran Mcanulty and NZ First’s Ron Mark were roughly even behind him, with half Scott’s share of the vote each.
The electorate is huge, stretching from the southern coast of the eastern North Island to Central Hawke’s Bay, taking in Eketahuna, Woodville, Pahiatua and Dannevirke.
But Mcanulty said the tide was turning this election and Scott was in for a much harder run as the three squared off against each other once again.
‘‘National have taken rural seats like Wairarapa for granted for too long... Tararua is often an afterthought, if it’s a thought at all,’’ Mcanulty said.
Two prime examples of National’s underfunding and neglect of the region were the cuts to Dannevirke Community Hospital, which led to the loss of a fulltime cancer nurse, and how the Government dragged the chain on a permanent solution to the Manawatu Gorge roading problems, he said.
Mcanulty said there was mood for change in Wairarapa and he’d even got a few National supporters donating to his campaign because they wanted a new MP, even though they still supported National. In the short term, Mcanulty would push for a wage support package for anyone affected by the gorge closure until a viable alternative was up and running. And in the long term, he planned to advocate for more funding to build a solid infrastructure base, from roading to healthcare and education, to support the region’s economic growth. Mcanulty, a former TAB bookie, was laying good odds on himself to take the seat from Scott on his second attempt. However, he was careful not to become complacent, as voters looking for change may split between himself and Mark, he said. ‘‘[But] Ron Mark is No 2 on his party list. He will be an MP anyway. So, a vote for me will give Wairarapa two strong MPS.’’ Scott said that kind of tactical voting could backfire because an electoral loss could undermine an MP’S credibility within their own party. He was 46th on the National list, so there was a reasonable chance he could get into Parliament even if he was unseated. But, he needed to be able to show strong support in the electorate if he was going to be a strong voice for Wairarapa in the National caucus, he said. ‘‘If I don’t get in with the Wairarapa seat, I might as well not be there. My party would not consider me a viable or credible MP. ‘‘They wouldn’t be pleased if I couldn’t hold a National seat.’’ National’s policies focusing on free-trade agreements that benefit farming exporters and having a light touch on taxes were the best fit to support Wairarapa’s growing regional economy. Over his last term, Scott said he’d been a loud advocate for Wairarapa as a member of National’s agriculture caucus committee, which met once a week and was often joined by Minister for Primary Industries Nathan Guy. Scott has also served on the finance, and the transport and industrial relations select committees and played a leading role in steering through legislation that gave Wairarapa iwi descendants grants to further their education. Ron Mark said there were two key issues for Wairarapa this election. The first was the Manawatu Gorge road closure. The route through the gorge is a key one for freight, connecting the east coast and the central North Island.
It was important enough that action should have been taken after a 2012 report, commissioned by the New Zealand Transport Agency, proposed four possible alternatives, which are now back under consideration. ‘‘[The Government] don’t deserve to be rewarded because they finally made it a road of national significance, under intense political pressure in an election year.
‘‘They deserve to have cabbages thrown at them.’’
He said an economic support plan needed to be considered, which National was not looking at, and work on the gorge alternative needed to start as soon as possible.
The second key issue was the fallout farmers faced after an April Environment Court ruling that Horizons Regional Council was being too easy on farmers by allowing high levels of nitrogen to be discharged under the One Plan.
Mark said farmers have told him complying with the stricter nitrogen standards could mean a loss of up to 60 per cent of their profit margins.
He believed the Government needed to look at legislative change on the issue that would take into account the negative economic and social effects being too strict will have.
Meanwhile, Labour was focusing on urban voters’ sensibilities, not those of rural farmers, who were still the backbone of the New Zealand economy, Mark said.
Labour’s controversial ‘‘water tax’’ and a possible new capital gains tax, on top of the losses of complying with stricter runoff standards, would have Wairarapa farmers losing their land, or closing their chequebooks, which wouldn’t be good for anyone, he said.
‘‘[Labour] is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
‘‘The only party that’s truly going to help farmers is a NZ First that’s strong enough to put a choker collar on them if they defeat National.’’