Spain’s breakaway state: what will happen now?

The Catalan regional government has passed a ‘‘law of disconnection’’ that allows it, under Catalan law, to break away from Spain - so, according to the authorities in Barcelona, it is possible. However, such an announcement will have no basis in Spanish law. Madrid and most countries will not recognise the announcement, and Spain’s Constitutional Court will declare it illegal immediately.

How will Madrid respond?

It could use Article 155 of the Spanish constitution to impose direct rule and call new regional elections. It also could arrest Catalan leaders for sedition, although that probably would trigger civil unrest. Another option is to start negotiating with Barcelona, which would be hard, given how polarised the debate is.

Has King Felipe made things better or worse? Many Catalans were astonished when he addressed the nation without saying anything about the hundreds of voters hurt in clashes with police during the illegal referendum. He also failed to call for dialogue at a time when Spain faces its worst political crisis since the military coup in 1981. Elsewhere in Spain, however, there was considerable support for the king’s criticism of the manner in which Catalan authorities have flouted Spanish law.

Is there a way out of this?

The opposing sides need to sit down and talk, quickly. Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, could offer to rewrite the constitution to allow for a binding referendum. His government could give Catalonia a better deal on finances, long a sore point among those who say that the region, the wealthiest in the country, pays more than its fair share of taxes to Madrid. Carles Puigdemont would have to abandon any thoughts of independence, for now. He depends, however, on the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy - and it is demanding independence by next week, whatever the consequences.

- The Times