Five the magic number for Turbos’ semifinal chances

As we enter the final week of the Mitre 10 Cup season, rugby writer Shaun Eade finds five more competition points marks the key for the Turbos to control their semifinal fate.

Ten competition points over their final two matches

Get in line for tickets for a home semifinal, no one can touch Manawatu¯ in second place.

Nine points

Still enough points for Manawatu¯ to be untouchable in second in the Championship standings.

Eight points

The home semifinal would be locked up. Northland would be able to equal Manawatu¯ on competition points, but due to the Turbos beating them earlier in the season, Manawatu¯ wins the tie-breaker.

Seven points

A top four spot is still assured and only Northland getting a bonus-point win over Wellington could knock them out of second place.

Six points

Semifinal rugby is locked in place, but here is where things start to get messy in terms of a home semifinal. Northland would need to upset Wellington to beat Manawatu¯ into second. But if Bay of Plenty were to get a bonus point win over Waikato, they could draw level with Manawatu¯ and since the Steamers won their match against the Turbos earlier in the season, they would hold the tie-breaker. Both Bay of Plenty and Northland face tough matches with the Taniwha facing Wellingtonand the Steamers taking on a Waikato side who will need a win to have a chance of avoiding relegation.

Five points

The minimum number of competition points Manawatu¯ need to secure to control their own semifinal fate. A home semifinal remains in play, but both Northland and Bay of Plenty could potentially finish ahead of them. They remain out of reach of Otago.

Four points

Now Manawatu¯ starts relying on results from other teams going their way to ensure they crack the top four. Otago could draw level with a bonus point win over Southland and they hold the tie-breaker over Manawatu¯ . But a loss for Northland or Bay of Plenty could be enough to get them over the line depending on bonus points.

Three points

Manawatu¯ need one of Otago, Northland or Bay of Plenty to lose, but even that could not be enough. Northland would need one bonus point to advance and BOP two.

Two points

Northland become untouchable and the Turbos’ only chance is Southland upsetting Otago or Waikato beating Bay of Plenty while not allowing a bonus point.

One point

Even if Bay of Plenty collect no points from their match against Waikato, they would still get in ahead of Manawatu¯ since they beat them earlier this year. Southland upsetting Otago and allowing the losers just one bonus point or less would be the only chance.

No points

The miracle option. Manawatu¯ would rely on winless Southland getting up for their first win of the season in Dunedin and deny them a bonus point while they are at it.