You don’t need a new smartphone
You don’t really need a new smartphone. Sure, some of them squeeze more screen into a smaller form. The cameras keep getting better, if you look very close. And you had to live under a rock to miss the hoopla for Apple’s 10th anniversary iphone X or the Samsung Galaxy S8. Many in the smartphone business were sure this latest crop would bring a ‘‘super cycle’’ of upgrades.
But here’s the reality: More people have decided we don’t need to upgrade every year. Or every other year. We’re no longer locked into two-year contracts and phones are way sturdier than they used to be. And the new stuff just isn’t that tantalising even to me, a professional gadget guy.
Holding on to our phones is better for our budgets, not to mention the environment. This just means we – and phone makers – need to start thinking of them more like cars.
We may have reached peak smartphone. Global shipments slipped 0.1 per cent last year, the first ever decline, according to research firm IDC.
In 2015, people replaced their phones after 23.6 months, on average, according to research firm Kantar Worldpanel. By the end of last year, they were holding onto them for 25.3 months.
‘‘Are smartphones across the board valuable longer to people? The answer is definitely yes,’’ Gartner analyst Brian Blau said. ‘‘Are the devices sufficient to take care of people’s needs today? Pretty much.’’
Last week, Apple reported its first holiday quarter decline in unit sales of iphones. It was just a dip, from 78.3 million phones to 77.3 million.
One major driver of the change in our behaviour is that phones now mostly look alike. ‘‘Consumers say, I will buy when I see something new or hear something I need,’’ Ryan Reith, a vice-president at IDC said.
Many of the biggest advancements, like augmented reality, have come largely through software. The iphone X uses cameras in new ways to recognise its owner and environment but it will take time to see more interesting uses.
A longer phone lifecycle is also a compliment to Apple and Samsung, even if some investors don’t love it. It’s a sign that their products are reliable and less susceptible to wear and tear. Adding water resistance to the iphone 7 and Galaxy S7 helped with that.
Slowing upgrade cycles don’t necessarily spell doom for Apple or Samsung, either. For one, they’re now charging more, like $1799 and up for the iphone X. They’re now selling us accessories like Samsung’s Gear VR and Apple’s Homepod, as well as services like Apple Music that we’ll pay for over time.
Like cars, phones will need a hardware and software service when we hold onto them longer. Samsung is getting into the game, too, including experimenting with service trucks.
But there’s likely a limit to how long we’ll hold onto them. ‘‘I don’t see a replacement cycle getting longer than three years,’’ Carolina Milanesi, a consumer tech analyst at the firm Creative Strategies, said.
But don’t count out desire, Milanesi said. People still upgrade phones as a projection of their personality or because they must have the latest whiz-bang tech.
I’m prepared to be wowed by a future phone upgrade. A major leap in battery performance would be at the top of most people’s mostwanted lists, but there are many scientific hurdles to conquer. The next big upgrade moment, in a few years, will likely be for phones capable of 5G service, which brings you mobile data on steroids.
Smartphones will likely hum along for years, like laptops have done with the rise of smartphones and tablets. And then some day there will be a totally new technology that will capture our dollars. – Washington Post