The need for electric-powered planning
It is a sign of great progress, but also of the great challenges that progress creates.
Not too many years ago, Elon Musk was an entrepreneurial upstart with too much money and far too much time on his hands. Today, the man who inspired the rapid rise of the electric vehicle from virtual scientific obscurity is himself facing the prospect of being swamped by the momentum of change.
As his own Tesla company struggles with the task of building production capacity from virtually nothing, major car makers are powering up their own design and production teams to produce more electric cars of varying quality and prices.
You may have heard of the Nissan Leaf, but you’re sure to find out very soon that it is but one branch of a verdant, fast-growing tree of possibilities.
That’s all very exciting and represents one part of a future we can all invest in, whatever our political hue. But the clean, strong line that represents the upward growth in the electric car market around the globe belies a messier, more complicated truth.
As battery range increases and prices go the other way, yes, we will see less reliance on fossil fuels deemed so dangerous for the environment, but will we be able to cope with the corresponding need for more electricity to power this transportation evolution? And will that electricity be clean and environmentally sustainable?
New Zealand lines company Vector believes this country needs to switch on to the challenges such a future poses. It has released a ‘‘green paper’’ seeking a strong strategy to help deal with the extra infrastructure that may be needed and changes in the way people use power.
It has predicted that one in 15 Auckland households will have an electric vehicle by 2021.
That strategy will no doubt need to be flexible, as the evolution of batteries improves the range of vehicles and their ability to be deployed in trucks and other powerful vehicles. We are not alone in standing on the beach and considering the size of the wave approaching.
Britain will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in little more than 20 years. Operators of the National Grid are predicting that the power use of electric vehicles will be the equivalent of six nuclear power plants by 2050.
New Zealand is in a lucky situation, regarding power generation. The great majority of it comes from renewable sources, including hydro and geothermal. But, as Vector suggests, we are going to need even more, and there are only so many rivers you can dam.
One other future scenario could make such concerns redundant. Driver-less technology could mean fewer vehicles on the road, with people calling up a pool car when needed, rather than owning it. Either way, Vector is right to highlight the power of preparation and a good strategy.
Dominion Post