By-election will test everyone
Just when New Zealand politics threatened to become stable and predictable, we get the thrill of a by-election.
It was no surprise that much of National’s old guard would start leaving when nine years in power turned into an unknown stretch in Opposition. At its best, it would be mildly frustrating. At its worst, it would be utterly boring.
The departure from politics of former Prime Minister Bill English was followed swiftly by that of National’s campaign mastermind, Steven Joyce. But as list MPS, they prompted a smooth transition.
Pundits assumed Gerry Brownlee or Nick Smith would be next, as both took significant hits in new leader Simon Bridges’ reshuffle. They reek of the past. Jonathan Coleman, on the other hand, is a relative newcomer, as a veteran of the 2005 intake, and was placed sixth in Bridges’ new lineup. There was no obvious sense that his time was up.
On paper, Coleman’s suburban Auckland electorate, Northcote, is a safe National seat, but the blue team cannot be complacent. Labour has taken the seat twice since it was created in 1996 and both times were during the Helen Clark years. Is there a chance that, with the right candidate and a strong campaign, a Labour Government with the same momentum and standing that Clark had in 1999 and 2002 could at least make a sizeable dent in Coleman’s 6200-vote majority?
By-elections are usually seen as a test of governments. Northland in 2015 was the perfect example. A third-term National Government had everything to lose and it did, and Winston Peters’ sly victory was an early sign it was not impossible to outwit Joyce and former Prime Minister John Key.
But the Northcote by-election will be a test of both the Government and Opposition. The honeymoon gloss is only just coming off Jacinda Ardern and attempts by supporting parties to distinguish themselves show the coalition is settling into a trickier managerial phase. The Ardern factor may not move a voting public quite as forcefully as it would have done two or three months ago.
By contrast, Bridges is yet to make any impression as Opposition leader and Coleman’s departure will be seen by some as a vote of no confidence in him. Bridges has disappointed in Parliament and his chief rival, Judith Collins, continues to grab headlines and media space more effectively than he does. At times she seems to be the de facto Opposition leader. Anything less than a significant triumph by a National candidate in Northcote will destabilise Bridges’ leadership.
Finally, few in the health sector will miss Coleman, who earned a reputation as an underperforming minister who often struck people as arrogant and out of touch. When his own leadership ambitions were thwarted in 2016, the writing was on the wall.
The Press