Practising on the public
People seem to be in the mood for evaluating National leader Simon Bridges’ job performance. I suppose this is to be expected since it’s been a few months since he was elected leader of the National Party and he’s just finished an exhaustive tour of the country. Some kind of stocktake was inevitable.
Tova O’brien, Newshub’s political editor, thinks he’s made at least one strategic misstep. In an interview with AM Show host Duncan Garner, she agreed with his view that Bridges has missed an opportunity to capitalise on Jacinda Ardern’s maternity leave.
Instead of shaking hands with we rubes in the provinces, more time should have been allocated to journalists and mass media in Wellington.
O’brien demurs on whether Bridges leadership is in trouble, however, pointing out that the National Party is still polling strongly in publicly released polls.
Enter David Cormack, a former Green Party communications director and New Zealand Herald columnist. In the course of more general criticisms of Bridges, he stated there is now a yawning gap between the coalition and National – according to the internal polling to which he is privy, at least.
I have absolutely no doubt Cormack has access to some private polling data. So do I. You won’t be surprised to learn what was disclosed to me was different. What was shown to me was a boomlet for Labour following the birth of the prime minister’s daughter settling down to something resembling the status quo ante.
So whose information is right? It’s impossible to say. In the first place, they’re not designed or conducted for the purposes of public release. We don’t necessarily know what the pollster was actually looking for. And their private nature means readers can’t judge for themselves or draw their own conclusions.
You just have to take a sceptical approach to this kind of information. You’re generally getting it from politicians. It can be far too easy to latch on to something both you and your source want to believe is true.
This is why I don’t tend to write about private polls. They’re useful for considering in the background. I don’t think they can really form the basis of public analysis. Not all commentators feel this way. Your mileage may vary, as the kids say.
As to the other point, I don’t agree with O’brien and Garner.
I’m not arguing here the response Bridges has received in town halls and clubrooms up and down the country show he is building support the out-oftouch-media can’t comprehend. We all laughed when Labour claimed that during the Key era. And rightly so.
I think the benefit of these kinds of campaigns is really to help Bridges sharpen up away from the media. Bridges has an aptitude for retail politics, which plenty of people will attest to. The shift from senior cabinet minister to leader of the Opposition is a significant one. A listening tour of the country isn’t a bad way to hone those skills.
Of course, Bridges isn’t a patch on Ardern for media star power. And the chances are he never will be. If National tries to fight 2020 on her terms, it won’t win.
Clement Atlee was in the same position in Britain in 1945. Winston Churchill was a victorious warlord, leader of the finest hour and the colossus of the political stage. Respected and beloved the world over, he enjoyed approval ratings in the mid-80s – much higher than Ardern.
And yet the UK Labour Party won the 1946 election. It was a landslide, too. People still argue about the reasons today. One thing that is clear, however, is that Labour presented a programme for government that was much more in tune with what the common people felt the country needed.
To win in 2020, National needs a couple of things to happen. One is for New Zealand First or the Greens to sink below 5 per cent. There are certain things National can do to encourage this, but it’s not something ultimately within its control.
What National can do that is within its control is craft an agenda that resonates with New Zealanders. This means finally drawing a line under the Key and English governments and working out a direction that voters will respond to. And because politics is zero-sum, that direction has to point towards a destination this present Government is unwilling, or unable, to travel towards.
That’s no easy task. The party faithful will need to be won over, which is where a goodwill tour really can help lay the groundwork. Hard work and internal discipline will be needed. And it will also take time. Probably another year, at least.
But I just checked my calendar. It turns out there are two-and-a-half years until the next election. Who thinks we’ll still be talking about what Bridges did this July by then?
Of course, Bridges isn’t a patch on Ardern for media star power. And the chances are he never will be.