One Plan – many changes

Constant changes to nitrogen modelling software have pushed Horizons Regional Council into changing its One Plan, which has already been subject to more than a decade of work and legal challenges.

But some farmers may still struggle to get a consent after the latest change, and councillors have their own concerns.

The council’s environment and planning committee voted yesterday to start a three-stage process for changing the plan, which governs how natural resources are managed in Manawatu¯ , Whanganui, Ruapehu, Horowhenua and Tararua.

It has been 14 years since the plan’s inception, and it seemed to be set in stone after the Environment Court approved it in 2012.

But in September 2017, the council found at least half of the farms under its umbrella would be unlikely to get resource consents with the One Plan as it was.

There were fears horticulture could not continue in Horowhenua, or cabbages from there could get as expensive as $15 each for growers to afford consents.

The big issue came from software called Overseer, which is used to model how nitrogen leaches into groundwater. An Overseer update meant estimates of how much nitrogen was leached from farms skyrocketed.

However, the One Plan still based leaching targets on older estimates, making it near impossible for farmers to reach the targets and get resource consents.

Horizons strategy and policy principal adviser Tom Bowen said the proposed plan change would happen in three steps.

Step one would update the One Plan to bring the targets in line with the new modelling for nitrogen leaching – something Bowen said was expected to be relatively straightforward – allowing Horizons to accurately measure nitrogen levels in waterways.

The next step was more tricky. It would involve changing the One Plan to ensure there was a clear way to issue consents. That step would need to see if consents could be issued that allowed leaching above the new targets.

The third step would be a comprehensive review of freshwater catchments, in consultation with iwi, industry and other groups.

Although the council hopes to start adjusting targets in October, completing all three steps was estimated to take until mid-2022.

Bowen said the changes would ‘‘narrow’’ the number of farmers struggling to meet consent guidelines.

Horizons strategy and regulation group manager Dr Nic Peet said there were risks to the change, such as legal challenges and the Government changing its freshwater policies.

Councillor Bruce Rollinson was concerned about spending on a plan change, as future updates could mean targets could dramatically change again.

Cr Lindsay Burnell was worried about vegetable growers, who he said would be in ‘‘a lot of trouble’’ even after the changes.

Many were working to reduce nitrogen leaching, but were getting to a point where the situation could be beyond them, he said.