Will she, won’t she? Ardern’s teacher gamble

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decision to front the teacher unions as they marched on Parliament was supposedly a last minute change of heart. She had earlier told Stuff she would not be available. But apparently Ardern was moved by the sight of thousands of people streaming through Parliament’s gate.

As a political gesture to placate some of those teachers, parents, and supporters who descended on Parliament to voice their anger, it probably worked.

But Ardern’s appeal to them as fellow members of a common cause may have jarred with some as a case of the Government talking out of both sides of its mouth.

Reading the placards, Ardern reminded the marchers she sympathised with their intent – even while the Government has been talking tough on the teachers’ demands.

Education Minister Chris Hipkins has all but labelled the teacher pay claims as unreasonable, and Ardern stoked the fires yesterday when she implied in an interview with Stuff that teachers had been too precipitous in launching strike action after just one round of negotiations.

The Government’s response has been very different in tone to the one it struck around the nurses pay claim, which also led to strike action.

There appears to be a political calculation that while public support for nurses is unconditional, that may not be so with teachers.

While the public clearly back teachers being paid more, their demand for a 16 per cent increase is out of whack with the expectations of most workers and may stretch that goodwill. The Government’s tough talk suggests its sounding of public opinion shows that to be the case.

There is probably another political calculation at play. While the NZEI and PPTA are not affiliated to Labour, there is a public perception that it is hand in glove with the unions.

Labour won’t do itself any harm with the wider electorate talking tough. But it is a political tightrope. Another round of teacher strikes – the NZEI is now threatening a two-day stoppage – will cause major disruption for parents and workplaces. It will also stress teachers and their families financially.

Public goodwill could run dry, and the Government could wear some of the backlash for its handling of the relationship.

But it’s not all about politics – there are also fiscal reasons for the Government’s prudence. You can more or less double the cost of whatever the primary teacher settlement costs, because secondary teachers will be next in line.

The pay claim alone is worth around

$296 million, but the cost of other demands – like smaller classroom sizes – will double that.

But it is easy to understand the frustration of teachers once you break down their claims.

The Government has talked up the gap between what teachers are claiming and what nurses settled for.

The gap may not be as big as it seems. Ardern’s impromptu appearance in front of the teachers was a show of willingness to get back around the negotiating table.

But the threat to launch another two-day strike even before the two parties get back to the table might have put them on a collision course instead.

It’s not all about politics – there are also fiscal reasons for the Government’s prudence. You can more or less double the cost of whatever the primary teacher settlement costs, because secondary teachers will be next in line.