Data predicts big shortfall

New Zealand’s public school sector is facing a shortfall of 2440 teachers in seven years, if the status quo remains.

Ministry of Education data shows secondary schools will see the biggest shortfall based on current data, trends and policy. But some of the numbers are being called into question by both the secondary teachers’ union, and the ministry itself.

According to the Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Tool, secondary teacher numbers this year had an oversupply of 90 teachers, but quickly dropped to a shortage of 170 teachers to keep up with demand in 2019. By 2025, an extra 2210 secondary school teachers will be needed to keep up with student numbers and 230 in primary schools. But ministry spokeswoman Ellen Macgregor-reid said the 2025 trajectory was not ‘‘reality’’.

‘‘[The tool] is giving us the best estimate for New Zealand’s teaching needs for 2019 and 2020. The numbers it provides beyond that point really are just a guide, and that is because it assumes nothing happens.’’

In other words, it doesn’t take into account policy and economic changes.

It has also omitted the estimated 9000 relief teachers currently employed by the public sector and those working in private schools.

‘‘We’re really using it for the next one to two years but keeping in mind that we need to be acting to make sure that those speculative numbers beyond 2020 aren’t

‘‘What this data does show very clearly is that we need to recruit a lot more teachers.’’ Post Primary Teachers’ Association president Jack Boyle

reality,’’ Macgregor-reid said.

Post Primary Teachers’ Association president Jack Boyle said the data was based on ‘‘flawed assumptions’’ that teacher supply was not an issue in 2017.

‘‘What this data does show very clearly is that we need to recruit a lot more teachers and do everything we can to make it a career they want to stay in.’’

He said teacher shortages would never be addressed if pay and conditions weren’t attractive. The ministry’s data had not taken into account what subjects teachers taught, or where in New Zealand they taught – except Auckland.

Deputy secretary of evidence, data and knowledge Craig Jones said the ministry was working to form a regional breakdown of those statistics.

It was hoped this data would go on to affect future policy-making, he said.

The tool, modelled on similar methodologies used in the United Kingdom, was introduced this week to ensure the education sector was ahead of trends.

The data was based on an estimate that the number of teachers in 2017 matched demand.