Pig disease boosts NZ beef exports
China has eclipsed the United States as New Zealand’s largest export market for beef as the spread of African swine fever hits domestic pork production.
Since first being reported in northwest China in August, more than 70 outbreaks of the virus, which causes high fever and hemorrhaging in pigs, have been confirmed.
More than 600,000 pigs have been culled and consumers have been forced to look for alternative sources of animal protein.
That had lead to an increase in demand for imported beef, including from New Zealand, Rabobank’s quarterly report says.
In the four months to January, China accounted for 33 per cent of NZ’S total beef export receipts while the US accounted for 30 per cent.
Rabobank animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate said although beef was not a major substitute for pork, the pork supply shortage was likely to push up Chinese beef consumption. ‘‘Given China is already an important and growing importer of beef, depending on how pork production and prices develop, there could be increased demand from China for beef imports over the coming months.’’
New Zealand beef exports to China jumped 34 per cent in volume and 38 per cent in value during the 2017/18 season and the country was well placed to supply China if demand for imported beef increased, he said.
Professor Bill Bailey, author of ASB Bank’s latest International Agri Insights report, said China was the world’s largest pork producer with more than twice the output of the second-ranked European Union and more than four times that of the US.
The meat was a mainstay of the local diet and nearly 53 million tonnes were forecast to be consumed this year, an average of 40 kilograms per person, Bailey said.
However, as a result of African swine fever (ASF), the Chinese pig herd was forecast to shrink to its lowest level in almost 30 years, and the country would need to import about two million tons to compensate for the loss of production.
‘‘Partially in response to ASF issues, but continuing a well-established trend, China’s beef consumption is expected to increase 4 per cent,’’ Bailey said. ‘‘Much of that growth will be met by imported products, with China’s 2019 beef imports forecast to grow above 2018 levels by 20 per cent.’’