Boks ‘probables’ lie in wait for ABS
Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus’ decision to select a B team to front the Wallabies at Ellis Park and an A team to tackle the All Blacks in Wellington makes sense and harks back to the olden days when they used to play trials with teams termed the ‘probables’ and ‘possibles’.
The ‘probables’ are the players who will face off against New Zealand and the theory is that they can only play themselves out of the team.
Meanwhile, the ‘possibles’ would be the players rivalling the Australians this weekend and they can only play themselves into the team. Erasmus is making use of an old model and we will only be able to see whether or not it was successful at a later stage. While quite unfair, unfortunately the reality in sport is that outcomes determine the belief in the process.
I was a member of the 1995 Springboks World Cup squad and our coach Kitch Christie followed a similar plan when he played the team he believed should take the high road against the Wallabies, which was a must-win game to get through to the quarterfinals.
The gold team clashed with Australia in the opening pool match in Cape Town, while the green team tackled Romania and Canada. Everybody knew their roles and whether you were in the gold or the green team was irrelevant because it was clarity within the group that mattered most.
I think it’s a good idea getting one team to prepare in South
Africa and another team to get ready in New Zealand. The big advantage for the Springboks is that they will have a week on the All Blacks because they will be waiting, whereas New Zealand will be travelling back home from Argentina. That would have been one of Erasmus’ main ideas in getting an edge over the All Blacks.
However, for it to work the Boks need to beat the Wallabies and either defeat the All Blacks or prove very competitive against them.
I think the Springboks don’t have a choice but to use the abbreviated Rugby Championship as a trial run ahead of the World Cup. From a South African perspective, Super Rugby left more questions than answers and, in Erasmus’ case, he will definitely use the Rugby Championship to get a style of play in place but also to discover his best combinations, which will be key in time for the World Cup.
The 2019 Rugby Championship has everything to do with preparation and very little to do with results. As such, Erasmus can utilise the fourteam tournament in order to prepare for the showpiece event in Japan. In the end, he will be judged by the World Cup and not the Rugby Championship.
When I served as Springboks assistant coach, I advocated only selecting from domestic-based players. My reasoning was purely that the group had no time to prepare, but the World Cup year is a different kettle of fish because all the players are going to have more than enough time to get ready.
I think it’s good that Erasmus has called up nine foreign-based players. In the past there were always doubts and people asked: Should we not select more of our stars who are playing overseas to strengthen our team? With the likes of Francois Steyn and Marcell Coetzee back in the mix, Erasmus has come up with a factual approach in order to settle the debate. I’m in favour of giving the foreign-based guys a go and comparing them to the players who decided to stay in South Africa.
Meanwhile, Wallabies coach Michael Cheika’s thought process would be: What can we do differently and how can we add value to this Wallabies setup with overseas-based players? Cheika has added a distributor in James O’connor and a kicker in Nic White. While O’connor was just OK at Sale Sharks and was not a superstar in the Gallagher Premiership, White has been a big part of Exeter’s success.
The main reason Cheika has brought the latter back is because the Wallabies have struggled to relieve pressure with Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley and even Will Genia. White has a superior kicking game and Erasmus and his coaches will be very aware of that and can expect an aerial bombardment.
For a long time, the Wallabies had to swap Kurtley Beale at 12 or 15 and play Foley in the back field to release pressure. It was complex but with White selected they can simplify their kicking strategy.
White kicks consistently well and, with the hang time on the highveld, the kicking game is going to be a big factor. Australia’s aerial skills are so good because of their AFL background and as a coach you would be looking to play to your strengths. Contesting the ball in the air when you are kicking off No 10 is very different to kicking off No 9 because you are passing the ball backwards.
However, if you possess a halfback who kicks consistently it’s a significant advantage. The truth of the matter is that White can basically kick you out of a test match owing to his magnificent kicking game.