Reform has the numbers

The Government’s abortion bill will pass its first hurdle with an overwhelming majority, with or without NZ First support. Stuff has spoken with a majority of Parliament’s 120 MPS, 67 of whom said they would support or be likely to support the bill at its first reading today.

Just seven said they would vote against it, with another four indicating they would be likely to vote against. Another 12 were still deciding, alongside NZ First’s nine MPS who are refusing to confirm their position.

NZ First surprised Parliament on Tuesday by suggesting it might require the law to be put to a referendum, despite not bringing up this requirement during extensive negotiations.

Justice Minister Andrew Little has now ruled out such a referendum, and he seems to have good numbers backing him on this call.

The bill needs a bare majority of 61 to pass.

Not all MPS responded to requests for comment for Stuff, so for 17 of them we have used their votes on the second reading of David Seymour’s End of Life Choice Bill as a proxy for their likely vote on abortion reform.

Adding these numbers to the mix, we predict 73 MPS will vote for the bill, 26 will vote against.

Support for the bill is strongest in the Labour and Green parties. All 8 Green MPS have said they will support it, while 32 of Labour’s 46 MPS have said they will definitely back it. Four more say they would be likely to support it.

National is slightly more divided with 17 of its 55 MPS saying they will definitely back it, with just 7 saying they will definitely oppose it. Ten say they’re not yet sure how they will vote.

ACT leader David Seymour and independent MP Jami-lee Ross have both said they back the bill.

The MPS were only asked about their

support through first reading, but many suggested they would support it further.

The Government announced its plan to reform abortion law on Monday, and unveiled the bill that would take abortion out of the Crimes Act.

The changes would allow people to selfrefer for an abortion up to 20 weeks into a pregnancy. It would also remove the requirement for people seeking an abortion to be certified by two consulting physicians.

MPS will have the opportunity to vote on the bill for a first time this afternoon, when

it will be read for the first time.

After passing this vote, it will head to a specially formed select committee, where the general public will have an opportunity to give their views on the proposed reform.

After this, MPS will have two more opportunities to vote on the bill before it becomes law. It’s highly likely MPS will change their votes between the first, second, and third readings.

Many MPS often vote a bill through its first reading to allow it to get to select committee, but then withdraw their support afterwards.