Why All Blacks are favourites
Settle down New Zealand, they are on the right track.
The announcement of the All Blacks’ Rugby World Cup squad today will draw an end to a period of needless national anxiety and confirm them as the favourites for the Rugby World Cup.
The likely return of Liam Squire will be the final piece of the puzzle that has come together late, but nicely.
As stated here before there were issues last year but the unmistakeable impression after the second Bledisloe test was that this was a team whose loose ends were tidied up: you cannot ‘‘guarantee’’ the All Blacks will win the Rugby World Cup, but you can say they have given themselves the best possible chance.
New Zealanders have a capacity to take selection decisions most test coaches would dream about and turn them into ‘concerns’.
The decision to move Richie Mo’unga – clearly the best No 10 in Super Rugby for two years – to No 10 and shift Beauden Barrett to fullback prompted an extraordinary amount of fretting that lacked context.
For example, Wales lost No 10 Gareth Anscombe for the tournament last month while Ireland No 10 Joey Carbery will likely head into the tournament injured.
These are real problems, not imagined ones. Anscombe had developed into an excellent test No 10 for Wales, while Carbery’s value to Joe Schmidt is twofold: first he is a true talent in his own right and second, Jonny Sexton has had his own well-documented injury problems. In other words, two of the top four-ranked teams in the world are already damaged.
But to the All Blacks. Not only will Mo’unga and Barrett open up the field in Japan – the may even save the game from itself and pull it back from entirely becoming a sport of collision, not evasion – they have solved two issues at once.
Forget No 10, fullback has been a problem for the All Blacks since Ben Smith was replaced in the first half of the first British and Irish Lions test in 2017 because his head wasn’t right.
Since that test Smith has started at fullback in just six tests out of 30. His possession of the jersey slipped two years ago and no-one has really grabbed it, with the All Blacks coming up with another plan as far back as last October – two playmakers – and sticking with it.
The All Blacks are simply blessed to have Barrett and they know it.
It was noticeable that during the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe series, Steve Hansen and Steve Foster tried to steer the line of questioning away from the No 10 jersey towards Barrett’s attributes at fullback as if to say, ‘‘Hold on, let’s not forget that he will improve us in that position’’.
It’s a good point. Barrett suffered an awful fall against France in Wellington last year but it doesn’t seem to have scarred him under the high ball and the way he set up George Bridge for Aaron Smith’s try against the Wallabies in Auckland was beautiful.
Opposition teams are now in a real bind when it comes to kicking against the All Blacks. Most – apart from Australia – will want to kick but with Barrett, Bridge and Sevu Reece back there they know they’re going to be burnt if they get it wrong.
As for Squire, it’s plain to see in his outings for Tasman that team-mates just love playing with him. His height also eradicates a potential All Blacks weakness at the lineout and he is far more than just a physical presence; he’s an athlete who understands the game brilliantly.
This column has not always been in the All Blacks fan club over recent years but they have answered quite a few questions in the past month or so. Progress can be non-linear; it can appear none is being made and then bang, it is plainly evident.
They are Rugby World Cup favourites, and deservedly so.