The winning RWC model
There is one ingredient above all that must go into the mix if you want to win a Rugby World Cup – experience. Research by The 1014 Rugby team, who will be part of Spark Sport’s Rugby World Cup coverage, has revealed that World Cupwinning teams in the professional era (post-1995) have had an average of 50 caps per player in their starting XVS, with 51⁄2 years of test rugby experience behind each player.
In addition, teams that win the World Cup typically have an average age of 28, play 52 tests in a World Cup cycle, and win at least 61 per cent of those games.
Four teams meet The 1014 Rugby model for winning the World Cup in the current cycle: the All Blacks, England, Ireland and Wales.
So, if the model is accurate, this will be the World Cup when the northern hemisphere teams bounce back after a dreadful 2015 tournament.
What is guaranteed, though, is that Japan will be no country for young men, particularly when it comes to the high-pressure quarterfinals onwards.
The average of 50 caps for each player starting in the final is a surprisingly high figure that explains why the All Blacks have been more than happy to back the likes of Kieran Read and Sonny Bill Williams in the leadup to the World Cup.
At 33 and 34 respectively, both may be in the veteran class but the All Blacks were stacked with thirtysomethings in 2015 and Keven Mealamu was the ripe old age of 36 when he came off the bench in the final.
The 1014 Rugby analysis discovered another interesting piece of information: every World Cup-winning team since 1995, bar the All Blacks in 2015, had been knocked out in the quarterfinal stage of the preceding tournament.
The analysis refers to this as the ‘hurt factor’, the extra level of motivation that losing sides carry with them for four years into the following World Cup.
For the record, the losing quarterfinalists in 2015 were France, Ireland, Wales and Scotland – while England were famously knocked out in the pool stage.
The 2015 tournament stands out for another reason: Richie Mccaw’s successful team was easily the most experienced winning side in World Cup history.
Remarkably, the All Blacks’ starting XV in the 2015 final had almost 1000 caps, an average age of 29 and had been playing test rugby for an average of 61⁄2 years.
They were older and more experienced than the famous ‘Dad’s Army’ England team that won the World Cup in 2003.
The All Blacks won’t have that much experience this year but they will still lean heavily on their ‘greybeards’ when the tournament enters the knockout stages.
In fact, ‘bolters’ are so rare in teams that win the World Cup final there have only been two in the professional era – Francois Steyn in 2007 with the Springboks and Nehe Milner-skudder with the All Blacks in 2015.
Defined by The 1014 Rugby as a player who has been in test rugby for less than a year, Sevu Reece could also fit into this ‘bolter’ category if he holds onto the All Blacks’ No 14 jersey all the way to the final and the All Blacks win.
However, don’t be surprised if the defining plays at the sharp end of this World Cup are made by those players who have been at the top of the game for a long time.
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