If emissions are curbed
What if the world could get carbon emissions under control and slow the rise in global average temperatures? In this news report from the future, Harrison Christian explains the scenario, as outlined by volumes of research and expert interviews.
An electric train shoots through a patchwork of farms, crops and biofuel plants.
On board, a delegation of foreign leaders looks out of the windows. They’re on a tour of New Zealand in 2050, aiming to use the country as a blueprint for navigating the enduring battle of the century: climate change.
The world managed to reach ‘‘net zero’’ emissions this year, in turn limiting an increase in global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
It was a remarkable achievement that required sweeping changes to diplomacy, social and economic policy and the way people live their daily lives.
The world’s biggest emitters of carbon dioxide – China, the United States, India and Russia – had to put aside their differences and work together. They taxed fossil fuels, subsidised renewable energy and helped developing countries access advanced energy technology.
But the picture isn’t all positive. The change of 1.5C has still been disruptive, bringing knock-on effects to New Zealand in the form of migration pressure and disease.
Although the planet is no longer warming, some of the long-term impacts, like sea-level rise, will still get worse before they get better.
How did we get here?
The average Kiwi family has an electric vehicle, eats sustainably grown food and is vaccinated against tropical disease.
New Zealanders in 2050 are accustomed to higher temperatures, and consider a summer’s day in the high 20s to be mild.
The country now has a lowcarbon economy, but the transition was bumpy. Reducing our emissions involved societal upheaval.
Younger generations organised mass demonstrations throughout the country, driven by social media and awareness campaigns. Voters, politicians and lobby groups were polarised.
Petitions were handed to Parliament, arrests were made and at times the democratic system seemed at stake. New Zealand was in the grips of a division not seen since the Springbok tour and nuclear-free protests of the 1980s.
In the end, the government developed and consulted on a national climate adaptation plan.
Petrol and diesel vehicles were phased out years ago, now relegated to museums and licensed collectors. Many people no longer commute to work, but those who do use electrified public transport or their own electric vehicles. The government provided initial subsidies for lower-income families to switch to electric cars.
The country’s flagship airline, Air New Zealand, has become a ‘‘net zero carbon airline’’, using locally grown biofuel for long-haul flights. Electric planes are used for domestic travel.
The oil and gas industry transitioned to renewable energy like wind and solar; lured there by subsidies and driven away from fossil fuels by tax.
New Zealand helped improve access to renewable energy technology in developing Pacific countries, where it was neither abundant nor cost-effective.
Greenhouse gases were bound up in almost every part of our economy; to make the transition, we had to take a hit to our economic vitality. So did the rest of the world.
State-backed employment packages were needed to help workers move from oil and gas into other industries. Unemployment remains high, as changes in industry coincide with the rise of automation in the workplace.
Farmers have managed to keep up productivity and income levels with fewer cows and more diverse land use. The country has also developed competitive synthetic meat and milk products, giving rise to a new age of agricultural innovation.
Food production has been harder hit in other countries than in New Zealand, so our exports have increased and we feed more of the world than we did before. New Zealand trades on a clean and highly soughtafter global brand because our food products are sustainable.
The country’s use of land is less dairy-focused, incorporating more crops, forestry and biofuel plants, which generate renewable energy from living organisms.
Housing development has stopped in some coastal and lowlying areas because of the risk of coastal flooding and erosion, as councils review their plans and look at alternative sites.
Although temperature rise was limited to 1.5C, sea-levels have risen by 30cm. Tens of thousands of people and billions of dollars’ worth of buildings are exposed to extreme coastal flooding (a one-in-100-year flooding event).
The planet’s ice caps and oceans are slow to respond to warming, so despite our best efforts to curb emissions, sea levels are still expected to rise another 10cm by 2090. It will expose a further 130km of road, 350km of pipes and 45 sq km of productive land to coastal flooding.
Some years ago, New Zealanders bought into an adaptation fund, similar to NZ Super, that supports households in the most exposed coastal areas.
It came after a West Coast town called out for help, saying it was becoming a ‘‘ghost town’’ of stranded assets and threatened roadways.
The town’s residents have since used their payouts from the adaptation fund to relocate inland. Many communities have done likewise, preferring relocation over seawalls and pumps. As a result, our cities are more densely populated, but they are also less congested.
The new natural world
Warmer ocean temperatures mean that ex-tropical cyclones are stronger when they reach New Zealand, bringing fiercer winds and heavier downpours. A powerful storm hits the country about once a year.
Civil authorities have detailed plans in place for this ‘‘new normal’’ of extreme weather and its associated flooding, landslips and power outages. Many roadways that were once exposed to flooding are no longer in use.
Drought has also become an issue for farmers and crop workers. In general, northern and eastern parts of the country are drier than they were 30 years ago, while western and southern areas are wetter. Where droughts do occur, they are longer and more intense.
In the hot season, emergency services have to contend with wildfires across the country, particularly in eastern parts of the South Island, where bonedry conditions often combine with strong winds.
Our predator-control effort is struggling to stop rats, stoats and other introduced species from thriving in the warmer climate. We’re also worried about introduced pathogens that could threaten farming stocks, crops, forestry and native plants.
Looking after our people
A proactive programme to immunise the population against mosquito-borne viruses has seen their spread in New Zealand limited, compared with other developed countries like Australia.
Freshwater supplies have been hit with outbreaks of salmonella and E. coli: bacteria that are becoming more resistant to antibiotics. The Ministry of Health is trying to keep our medicine effective through selective prescription policies and public education.
A free and easily accessible healthcare system has stopped mortality rates from rising as far as they have in other countries. Elderly people and infants are particularly susceptible to the hotter days and the spread of viruses and bacteria.
An influx of climate change migrants from Australia, Asia, Africa, the Mediterranean and the Pacific has jump-started economic growth. Many new arrivals have agricultural expertise and fled drought in their country of origin.
In a warmer world, New Zealand, with its ability to grow life-sustaining crops, and its isolation from politically unstable nations, is seen as a very good place to be. How we should treat climate migrants – and how many we should accept – is a big policy issue.
The electric train carrying our foreign visitors stops somewhere in the central North Island. The group disembarks to look at a sea of crops.
This plant material will be converted to biofuel, which might be used to power the aeroplane that takes them home, the tour guide explains.
The crops are dotted with workers, searching the leaves for introduced pests.
Despite the country’s best efforts to curb emissions, we are still playing catch-up with the warmer climate; it has brought effects that our best minds didn’t anticipate.
But it’s hoped we are now standing on the precipice of the world’s warming, and from here, it’s a slow turnaround, and a gradual journey back to a preindustrial climate. Future generations will need to continue the work we started.
Things could have been a lot worse.
This account is based on IPCC projections for a rise in global average temperatures being limited to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, if net emissions are halved by 2030 and reach ‘‘net zero’’ by 2050. Stuff also interviewed the following experts: Niwa climate scientist Petra Pearce, Victoria University climate scientist James Renwick, Victoria University senior research fellow Judy Lawrence, Victoria University lecturer Jonathan Oosterman, Auckland University associate professor Siouxie Wiles and Lincoln University associate professor Anita Wreford.