The jobs contagion

A three-part Stuff investigation details the shape of the unemployment crisis now, how it will grow, and what it means for a welfare system suddenly under intense scrutiny.

another eight weeks. This may be delaying inevitable unemployment for many people.

‘‘When the wage subsidy is still in place and keeping a lot of people in their jobs, you have to say it’s going to be a lot worse once that starts to phase out,’’ says Fletcher.

At an unemployment rate of 14 to 15 per cent, more than one in four of the working age Ma¯ori population could expect to be jobless. ‘‘We need to remember, judging from past recessions, it takes a long time to unwind numbers like that,’’ says Fletcher.

Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni is more optimistic. Treasury forecasts have been ‘‘quite accurate,’’ she says.

In a survey of employers who received the wage subsidy, only 6 per cent thought they may still need to make people redundant, Sepuloni says.

The survey had a 25 per cent response rate and the ministry concedes it’s unclear how representative it was.

As a contractor, Kristy English qualified for the wage subsidy. While it represented only 20 to 30 per cent of her normal income, it has covered her rent. Savings intended as a first home deposit have covered her other outgoings, but in the long run, she fears she may have to give up her flat and move in with her sister permanently.

But throughout, she’s tried to remain positive and remind herself that she’s among the more fortunate of our growing unemployed cohort. ‘‘I am lucky to have that fallback,’’ she says. ‘‘I am coming from a privileged position.’’

For others, it’s harder to remain optimistic. The Government’s welfare safety net is complex. Those who are familiar with it describe confusion, frustration and humiliation.

Many more people looking for help will put a strain on Work and Income, which administers benefits.

Auckland Action Against Poverty advocate Fred Andrews used to be a constructionworker. The casual work meant he was on and off Jobseeker support for four years until he turned 65 last year and moved onto a pension, which he says boosted his income by $140 per week.

‘‘Work and Income has always had a toxic culture,’’ he says. ‘‘Many times I’ve sat with beneficiaries and they’ve broken down in tears in front of a case manager and the case manager still won’t help them.

‘‘People are entitled to benefits. They’re entitled to food and shelter. The stuff that makes up a life.’’

He doesn’t think the ministry has trained enough staff to manage the crisis ahead.

‘‘The people picking up the phone, they’re not experienced case managers. They’re fairly new to the game. Some of their questioning is dubious, to say the least.’’

It is nigh on impossible to explain what’s available for people who lose their jobs in away that covers every possible scenario.

At the simplest level, the three main payments available for people out of work are Jobseeker Support, Sole Parent Support and the Covid19 Income Relief Payment. If you have a partner, their incomewill have an impact on what you can get. And if you have kids, that makes a difference too.

Work and Income has an online tool to apply individual circumstances to its range of support. To illustrate further, we created five hypothetical households and calculatedwhat each would be eligible for.

Andrews says some are too embarrassed to go and ask for a food grant, even when they’re legally entitled to it.

Others butt up against detailed requirements that seem designed to minimise access to support.

‘‘You’re dealing with a bureaucracy that has an agenda of giving as little as possible,’’ he says.

‘‘They have a vested interest in not giving out too much money. If you’re asking for a food grant, you’ll get less than what you think you deserve. It’s always been my experience.’’

Andrews’ advice to those who have lost their job and will be relying on a benefit is to learn as much as possible about what they are entitled to.

‘‘Knowledge is power, the more you know the better it will be for you and the smoother the transition to being awelfaredependent person. If you make their job as easy as possible they will bend over backwards for you.’’

The Deep Trouble project team is: