Next year in politics: You read it here first
The Stuff political team have been gazing at the crystal ball. Who will be up, who will be down, and who will embarrass themselves in 2021?
The predictions:
Facing serious pressure on housing prices, Labour will extend the Bright Line Test, arguing this doesn’t qualify as a new tax – just a new way to crack down on people avoiding paying their fair share.
An electorate mp will leave Parliament, sparking a byelection.
Congestion charging will be announced – or at least consulted on – for Auckland. National will struggle with whether or not to oppose it.
Local authorities will continue to screw up, necessitating the appointment of at least one commissioner. The threat of an observer in Wellington will linger but not eventuate.
The Government will implement a clean car emissions standard, but the EV fleet will remain below 30,000 by the end of the year, a tiny fraction of the overall fleet.
Barring an outbreak, the trans-tasman bubble will open before the start of March.
No-one will resign from Cabinet in scandal or under pressure.
New Cabinet minister Peeni Henare will say something that he will regret.
A newmpfrom the class of 2020 will greatly embarrass themselves on behavioural grounds.
A decision will be made on the future of light rail in Auckland, although don’t expect shovels in the ground.
The drive towards a four-year term will continue – but Labour will eventually concede that a referendum would be needed to make this change.
New Zealand will sign up to a much tougher emissions target under the Paris Agreement after the Climate Change Commission recommends it. National struggles to bring itself behind the commission’s first emissions budgets, igniting a quiet civil war within the party.
The median house price in Wellington will hit $1 million and prices will rise throughout the country.
The Government’s books will be in better shape than feared with a deficit $10 billion-$15b lower than what’s currently forecast. Unemployment will continue to rise, but it will peak below 7 per cent.
The work towards a new intelligence agency, as recommended by the royal commission’s inquiry into March 15, is slow and unfinished by the end of the year. Incumbents within the system generally resist the change.
The country will hear extremely little from Winston Peters or from the husk of a party that is NZ First.
The rollout of the Covid vaccine will be patchy and messy. By the end of 2021 there will still be people who want it who haven’t got it.
The Government will come under serious pressure to open the borders widely as other countries get their vaccines fully distributed.