RATs stocks concern expert
The Ministry of Health has enough rapid antigen tests (RATs) for 1 million a week in the event of an Omicron outbreak, but New Zealand would need five times that to manage without lockdowns, a leading epidemiologist says.
Just 10 cases of Omicron would grow to 1000 new cases a day in six to 12 days, according to the latest Ministry of Health modelling.
The projections – a worst-case scenario – are being used by the ministry for planning and preparation ahead of the highly transmissible Covid-19 strain’s arrival in the community in New Zealand.
The Government has 3.5 million tests available for distribution, with another 2million in the country and en route to the ministry’s logistics provider, and a further 20 million on order, arriving in batches over the next six months.
A quick escalation of cases would likely result in amove to rapid antigen testing as the primary testing for Covid-19, with the country’s polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and contact tracing services overwhelmed, experts believe.
Melbourne University epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely said New Zealand would need to have at least 50 million rapid antigen tests ‘‘on the shelves in supermarkets, pharmacies and stockpiled in warehouses’’ in time for an Omicron outbreak if it wanted to avoid the breakdown of core services as a result of infections, and possible infections.
‘‘I don’t think New Zealand has understood just how many of these things it will need,’’ Blakely said.
The Government’s supplies of rapid antigen tests don’t include additional stock privately sourced by essential businesses including aged care providers.
Based on its modelling, the ministry’s supplies of rapid antigen tests would allow the use of 1 million tests per week. ‘‘In the worst case of a large outbreak, these orders would enable us to sustain usage of 1 million per week while additional supply was sourced,’’ aministry spokesman said.
But Blakely said the 1 million tests would need to be reserved for essential workers who were symptomatic, or close contacts, to enable society to continue functioning and avoid overwhelming health services.
With current stocks of the tests, using 1 million per week was a reasonable way to ration them, Blakely said. ‘‘But it will be a big struggle with only 1 million rapid antigen tests per week to ensure essential workers can get back to work and [for] society to work smoothly.’’
Blakely said rationing of tests to 1 million a week would need to be paired with lockdowns for ‘‘the vast majority of the population’’.
The tests currently have limited availability in New Zealand. They are used by some Government departments, businesses, health and aged care providers as a screening tool and for unvaccinated domestic air travellers.
The ministry’s website says the tests will be available for purchase by the public in the first quarter of 2022.
Covid-19 modellerMichael Plank said it was very likely many more rapid antigen tests would be needed than the amount ordered by the Ministry of Health – and sooner.
‘‘They talk about six months, but Omicron can be on you in a few weeks, as their own numbers show. If you’ve gone from 10 to 1000 in just under two weeks it doesn’t stop there, so in the next few weeks you’re going to be in tens of thousands.’’
Aministry spokesman told Stuff earlier this week that the role of rapid antigen tests as part of the public health response ‘‘had not yet been determined’’.
‘‘Omicron outbreak planning is well under way at the ministry and communications regarding these plans will occur in the coming weeks.’’